Baylor-Mizzou Line at Missouri -3.5
Carrie Stroup here with the Baylor-Mizzou line that was coming in at -3.5 in favor of the Missouri Tigers. Get the latest betting odds from Sportsbook.com here and be sure to claim up to $250 in FREE CASH based on your initial deposit.
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Missouri -3.5 & 149.5
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -3.5 & 148.5
In a game with big implications for NCAA Tournament seeding, the second-seeded Missouri Tigers play the fourth-seeded Baylor Bears for the Big 12 Championship.
The Tigers conquered in both games this season SU and ATS. First they eked out an 89-88 victory on the road as underdogs and then dominated the Bears at home 72-57, covering the six-point spread. In fact, Missouri has won six consecutive games ATS against Baylor (5-1 SU). Overall, the Tigers have been quite successful against the books this season (18-9-1 ATS, 13-6-1 ATS versus Big 12 opponents) while the Bears have not been a good wager at 12-13-1 ATS (8-11-1 Big 12). Baylor’s 81-72 upset over conference top seed Kansas was largely a part to a wide discrepancy of threes (BU 9-of-19, KU 2-of-13). The Bears will not benefit from this again on Saturday as Missouri is among the nation’s leaders with 8.2 threes per game and 39.4% 3-pt FG.
Both times these two teams met, this physical Missouri team has been able to shut down Perry Jones III, who in the two contests is averaging 6.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG on 6-of-19 FG (31.6%). But the 6-foot-11 sophomore will be difficult to contain in this game after coming alive late in the season. In his past four games, (3-1 SU and ATS) he is averaging 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG. That includes 18 points and seven boards in Friday’s victory. Baylor’s offense features four players who score double-digit points on a nightly basis. Jones III leads the way (13.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and is joined in the frontcourt by Quincy Acy (12.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Quincy Miller (11.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG), both of whom add size and scoring prowess. Junior point guard Pierre Jackson (13.4 PPG, 5.8 APG) scores the second most on the team. While he leads Baylor in passing, he is also deadly from beyond the arc at 45% 3-pt FG. Brady Heslip helps him on the perimeter with similarly dangerous three-point shooting (43% 3-pt FG, 2.4 threes per game) that could help carry the Bears to another upset. Jackson and Heslip combined to make 6-of-10 threes on Friday, as all five starters scored 11+ points in the upset of the Jayhawks.
Missouri brings the nation’s seventh-most productive offense to the table at 80.0 PPG. Senior guard Kim English (14.7 PPG) has paced the team in the Big 12 Tournament, scoring 27 points against Oklahoma State and 23 points in Friday’s 81-67 semifinal win over Texas. Remarkably, he has registered those totals on a combined 20-of-23 shooting, including 5-of-7 from beyond the arc. English has been bothered by a quad injury, but he is probable for Saturday night. The Tigers' leading scorer is senior G Marcus Denmon (17.7 PPG) who is coming off a dreadful 0-for-10 FG (0-for-5 threes) against the Longhorns. His two-point night snapped a streak of 10 straight double-figure scoring games. Ricardo Ratliffe (13.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) controls the paint for Missouri, making 69.5% of his shots from the field. He’s coming off a monster 18-point, 14-rebound effort against Texas. Those three, Michael Dixon (13.2 PPG) and Phil Pressey (9.9 PPG), who also scored 23 points against Texas, make this an offense with a lot of weapons to guard.
COLORADO BUFFALOES (22-11) vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (23-10)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Arizona -3.5 & 129
Opening Line & Total: Wildcats -3.5 & 129
Colorado looks to cap off its first-ever Pac-12 Tournament with a fourth win in four days as the sixth-seeded Buffaloes meet fourth-seeded Arizona in Saturday’s conference championship game.
The Buffaloes beat 11th-seed Utah on Wednesday before upsetting third-seeded Oregon and second-seeded California on back-to-back nights. Arizona was fortunate to avoid top-seeded Washington in Friday’s semifinals, instead it faced eight-seed Oregon State that finished 7-11 in the subpar conference. The Wildcats actually trailed by seven points at halftime before OSU ran of gas playing in its third game in three nights. These schools are very similar statistically, but the Buffaloes are better defensively and play more under control. In three tourney games, they have committed just 25 turnovers, while forcing 45. Arizona has a minus-5 turnover margin in the tourney, committing 15.5 turnovers per game.
Colorado has been outrebounded in all three games of the Pac-12 tourney, but it has held these three opponents to a combined 39.5% from the field. The Buffs were very efficient on offense against Cal on Friday, making half of their shots (25-of-50 FG) and going 15-of-18 from the foul line. G Carlon Brown (12.6 PPG) and F Andre Roberson (11.6 PPG, 11.1 RPG) each had 17 points against the Bears, while Austin Dufault (11.0 PPG) scored 15. This is pretty typical for this unselfish team that doesn’t have one go-to player. Brown is the leading scorer with 10 straight double-figure outputs. He has 15.0 PPG in two games against the Wildcats this season. The 6-foot-7 Roberson is a beast to move out of the paint, averaging 16.3 PPG and 10.0 RPG during his team’s Pac-12 tourney run. He was actually shut out (0-for-8 F) in a home win over Arizona, but played much better in the last meeting with 12 points and 11 boards.
The Wildcats have done a tremendous job guarding the three-point shot this year, limiting opponents to 27.8% from downtown. However, they have shot worst from three-point range (6-of-36) than Colorado (8-of-36) in two meetings this season. Arizona’s top three scorers all shot the ball well against Oregon State on Friday. Junior G Kyle Fogg (13.7 PPG) led the way with 22 points on 6-of-12 FG, while F Jesse Perry (12.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG) pumped in 16 points (5-of-10 FG) and 11 boards and F Solomon Hill (12.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) scored 12 points on 5-of-7 FG before fouling out. Fogg continues his offensive surge since the start of February, averaging 17.3 PPG during an 11-game, double-figure streak. Perry has three straight double-doubles, averaging 15.8 PPG (24-of-28 FT) and 11.3 RPG, and posted double-doubles in both meetings with Colorado this year (18.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG).
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (25-9) vs. CINCINNATI BEARCATS (24-9)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Louisville -3 & 123.5
Opening Line & Total: Cardinals –1.5 & 123.5
Louisville takes on Cincinnati in the Big East Championship Game on Saturday night under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden in the first-ever conference final between two non-original Big East members.
Cincy advanced to its first Big East Championship Game in style, handing top-seeded Syracuse its second loss of the season in an impressive wire-to-wire win, 71-68, on Friday night. The Bearcats squeaked out a 60-56 home win (as two-point underdogs) over the Cardinals on Feb. 23, and have won seven of their past eight (SU and ATS) heading into this game. Louisville will play in the tournament final for the third time in four years, looking to avenge its 69-66 loss to Connecticut last year. Despite limping into the Big East Tournament by losing three of their final four regular season games (and five in a row ATS), the Cardinals are peaking at the right time. Louisville knocked off the number-two and three seeds on back-to-back nights—dismantling Marquette 84-71 on Thursday and running all over Notre Dame 64-50 on Friday. Cincy will likely use a 2-3 zone to deny the long and athletic forwards of Louisville, employing a four-guard lineup to complement big man Yancy Gates. Even though the Cards have a size advantage down low, Gates has averaged 19 points per game over his past three contests, and will be the difference in this game.
If Louisville hopes to capture its second Big East Championship, junior point guard Peyton Siva (9.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) will be the one to lead them there. Siva has been the Cardinals’ best player in this tournament, averaging 15.0 PPG in the three victories, including a season-high 18 against Marquette. This is the first time all season Siva has scored in double-figures in three straight games, and his slashing ability has created more space for kick-outs to leading scorer Kyle Kuric (13.1 PPG), who is also averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament. The frontcourt tandem of Gorgui Dieng (9.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and Chane Behanan (9.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will need to limit Gates down low and crash the boards. The Bearcats shot the lights out against Syracuse—shooting 45.5 percent from the field—so Louisville must limit second-chance scoring opportunities to prevent Cincy’s lethal outside shooters from knocking down open shots.
Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin may have just written the blueprint for how to defeat the seemingly unstoppable Syracuse Orange. Syracuse thrives off fast break offense and scoring in transition, but the Bearcats slowed the Orange down by hitting them with a taste of their own medicine: a 2-3 zone. Louisville struggles against the zone too—most recently in its 58-49 loss to Syracuse last week—which could be good news for Cincinnati backers. The Bearcats employ a four-guard lineup around Gates (12.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG), who should win tournament MVP honors with a win on Saturday. Gates scored 23 points in a double-overtime thriller against Georgetown on Thursday, and dropped another 18 against ‘Cuse on Friday. Gates was one of four Bearcats to score in double-figures on Friday, along with guards Sean Kilpatrick (18 points), Dion Dixon (11 points) and Cashmere Wright (11 points). The only issue for Cincinnati is the lack of depth—all five of Cronin’s starters played 30+ minutes on Friday, and only two bench players entered the game. If Gates gets into foul trouble, the Cardinals will have a big advantage in the post and can feed the ball to Dieng and Behanan on a consistent basis.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
