Duke vs. North Carolina Point Spread at Blue Devils -2.5

Carrie Stroup here with your Duke vs. North Carolina point spread that had the Blue Devils as a -2.5 favorite.  

DUKE BLUE DEVILS (21-5) at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (18-7)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Duke -2.5 & 151

Eight days after the game was postponed due to snow, No. 5 Duke and North Carolina will finally tip-off on Thursday night in a showdown between two of college basketball’s fiercest rivals.

The Tar Heels (14-11 ATS overall) began ACC play brutally, losing four of their first five SU (0-5 ATS), including two to poor teams in Wake Forest and Miami. Since then, they have won seven straight (SU and ATS) to improve their conference mark to 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU). Carolina is 8-7 ATS at home this season, and 2-2 (SU and ATS) as an underdog, winning against Louisville and Michigan State, but losing on the road to Syracuse and Virginia. The Blue Devils (17-9 ATS overall) had a similarly rocky start to ACC play, dropping their first two road games to Clemson and Notre Dame. Since then, though, they have won nine of their past 10 contests (8-2 ATS), losing only to No. 1 Syracuse. Duke is 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) in the ACC and now 5-2 ATS on the road. The Blue Devils are 13-4 ATS against good defensive teams (42% or less FG allowed) this season, but the Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS over the past three seasons in home games against a team with a winning record, outscoring these visitors by 11.5 PPG. The Blue Devils swept both meetings SU last season, covering easily at the Dean Dome in a 69-53 victory. Duke has now won seven of the past nine meetings (5-4 ATS) between these two storied programs.

Duke’s offense is one off the most efficient in the nation, averaging 81.2 PPG (19^th in Div. I) on 46.9% shooting (56^th in nation) with 15.2 APG (43^rd in Div. I). The Blue Devils rank second nationally, making 41.6% of their three-pointers, and even though their 34.8 RPG isn’t particularly strong (180th in nation), their 9.8 offensive RPG is respectable. Defensively they are solid too, yielding 66.7 PPG (87th in Div. I) on 44.8% shooting and 30.8% threes (37th in nation). Freshman PF Jabari Parker (19.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) heads their scoring efforts and those on the glass, and is averaging 22.3 PPG and 11.5 RPG over the team’s past four contests. This includes his 16 points and 14 boards in Tuesday's 68-51 blowout win at Georiga Tech. The team’s second-leading scorer, SF Rodney Hood (16.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG) is also new to the rivalry, and he enters this game amid a four-game funk in which he is averaging 10.5 PPG on 31% FG. Still, he has been a lethal shooter all season, making 46% of his threes. SGs Rasheed Sulaimon (9.3 PPG) and Andre Dawkins (9.2 PPG) are also deadly shooters, with each player hitting more than 47% of his long-distance attempts. Sulaimon had 13 points and five assists in the home win over Carolina, but managed just one point in 15 minutes in the victory in Chapel Hill. PG Quinn Cook (12.0 PPG, 4.9 APG) rounds out their double-digit scorers, though he has hit a slump and is averaging 1.8 APG over the team’s past four contests. But Cook played well in last season's sweep of Carolina, averaging 15.0 PPG (46% FG), 5.0 RPG and 3.5 APG. The other key factor for this team is PF Amile Jefferson (6.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who puts up fantastic numbers down low considering he plays only 21.6 MPG.

Unlike Duke, North Carolina isn’t very scary on the offensive end, averaging 76.0 PPG (64^th in Div. I) on 45.8% shooting (104^th in Div. I). They make a terrible 31.9% of their threes and a pitiful 62.2% of their free throws (fifth worst in Div. I). But on the defensive end, the Tar Heels hold opponents to 67.9 PPG (115th in nation) on 39.7% shooting (26th in Div. I) and 30.9% threes (41st in nation), thanks to 7.7 SPG (37th in Div. I) and 5.3 BPG (35th in nation). Carolina also dominates the glass with 41.1 RPG (8th in Div. I) and 12.9 offensive RPG (7th in nation), which is the team's greatest advantage for Thursday's matchup. PF James Michael McAdoo (14.7 RPG, 7.0 RPG) is UNC's primary post player and is an effective scorer, but failed to register a point in 13 minutes before fouling out of Monday's win at Florida State. He really struggles at the free-throw line, making just 52.5% of his 7.9 FT attempts per game. In last season's series with Duke, he averaged a pedestrian 12.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG, pulling down only three boards in 34 minutes in the home loss. McAdoo has plenty of help on the glass with C Brice Johnson (10.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG), SF J.P. Tokoto (9.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and PF Kennedy Meeks (7.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who all add at least five boards per contest. With McAdoo saddled with foul trouble on Monday, Johnson registered a double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Meeks had a career-high 23 points on 11-of-12 shooting with seven boards. G Marcus Paige (17.2 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.4 RPG) is Carolina's top scorer and passer and despite being a natural point guard, has played off the ball this season to help give the team more perimeter scoring, netting 18.3 PPG (20-of-41 threes) during a current seven-game streak of scoring 15+ points. He’s the team’s only big three-point threat, making 2.4 per game, though he struggled mightily last season against Duke, going a combined 3-for-15 FG with eight points, seven assists and six turnovers in the two defeats. Senior SG Leslie McDonald (10.2 PPG) rounds out the team’s double-digit scorers, though he is hitting only 35% FG and 29% threes this season, which he started late due to NCAA violation concerns.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter