Line on Louisville vs. Kentucky: Skinner Says Louisville Wins
The line on Saturday’s Louisville vs. Kentucky game had the Wildcats as an 8.5 point favourite but you might want to just take Louisville on the moneyline to win outright. You can find all the latest Final Four betting odds and all other wagering spreads at Belmont.com here. Claim up to 25 percent FREE CASH on your initial deposit. See site for details.
The Civil War between Louisville and Kentucky has been hyped up all week by experts and media pundits alike, but every single one of them has already given the win to Kentucky. Stories popped up about whether Kentucky could beat the NBA’s Washington Wizards and how a NCAA Championship would be the crowning achievement on coach John Calipari’s resume. But many are forgetting that the coach on the other side already has a NCAA Championship (with Kentucky no less) on his resume and has got to be sick of everyone writing his team off this week.
Belmont line and total: Kentucky -8.5 and 136.5
Yes, Rick Pitino was informed this week that he didn’t make the cut to be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame this year, but just to be a final candidate is quite the accomplishment in itself. His Louisville team may not be the most talented team out there, but they function as a cohesive unit, their defense is phenomenal, and they have made it to the Final Four by beating some quality foes too.
Sure, Kentucky is more athletic, has the Player of the Year in Anthony Davis and will have four or five 1st round draft choices in the upcoming NBA draft. But March Madness didn’t get that moniker from having the more talented team each season cruise to championships and 2012 will be no different. Kentucky has rolled through the tournament so far, winning all four games by double-digits but not one of those teams was a good defensive team. Those teams simply tried to run and gun with the Wildcats and in all four cases, talent won out. Rick Pitino has been to this dance before and having a week to prepare for this, his Louisville team won’t play into Kentucky’s hands.
Another thing to remember is that since 1990, only eight teams have won the National Title after failing to win their conference tournament. Of the four teams left, only Louisville won their conference tournament, so history is on their side in that respect. They have spent all week hearing how they are basically up against an “NBA team” and should just step aside and watch as marvellous Kentucky goes to work. Do you not think Louisville is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, looking to “shock the world?”
The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games and that includes two straight up wins as underdogs in their last two contests. AND, they have seen Kentucky already this year, so this “supreme talent” the Wildcats have won’t be surprising one bit. Louisville lost 69-62 IN Kentucky as Russ Smith was the only Louisville player to score in double digits and he had 30! More importantly though, they held the Wildcats to 29.8% shooting from the field and forced 20 turnovers. If it weren’t for all the fouls (Kentucky was 32-for-43 from the free throw line), Louisville would have likely won.
Louisville has greatly improved since then and their defense will be just as, if not more, stifling to Kentucky. Pitino has had a week to prepare and will not be afraid to pull out all the stops. If Louisville can keep Kentucky off the line for the easy points, then this one is going to be a lot closer than all those experts think. It’s not like John Calipari’s teams haven’t earned a reputation of choking from the stripe in crunch time during the tournament either – anyone remember Memphis in 2008?
Don’t be too surprised to see Louisville win this game outright, but you can take the points just to be safe too.
- Matt Skinner, Gambling911.com
