Michigan vs. Syracuse Point Spread – Final Four
Carrie Stroup here with your Michigan vs. Syracuse point spread for the Final Four. Claim your FREE $100 BET when you open an online betting account at Sportsbook.com here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan -2 & 131
A pair of No. 4 seeds with 30 victories apiece will play in Saturday's Final Four when Syracuse takes on Michigan at Georgia Dome.
The Wolverines hit the wall at the start of February, finishing the regular season 1-9 ATS (5-5 SU) and then losing to Wisconsin in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. But they have been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament, beating their four opponents by an average score of 79 to 63, including three wins of 15+ points. The Orange have also dominated in their four NCAA wins, with three double-digit victories and a +20.0 PPG margin, prevailing by an average score of 66 to 46. The Wolverines are 8-1 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring these teams by 11.7 PPG. Syracuse is now 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason and 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) on a neutral court this season. Michigan is just 2-5 ATS as a non-home favorite this season, while the Orange are 4-3 (SU and ATS) in the underdog role. These teams last met two seasons ago on a neutral court in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City, resulting in a 53-50 Syracuse win.
Michigan is a team that matches up well against Syracuse's 2-3 zone, scoring 75.5 PPG (23rd in nation) on 48.5% FG (6th in D-I) and 38.5% threes (18th in nation). And while Syracuse thrives on creating miscues with its long-armed roster, the Wolverines have the fewest amount of turnovers in the country (9.4 TOPG), lead the nation in Ast/TO ratio (1.55) and rebound pretty well too with a +3.1 RPG margin. Michigan's defense is adequate (62.9 PPG, 42.3% FG, 32.3% threes allowed) and is able to stay out of foul trouble (12.7 fouls per game, 2nd-fewest in D-I), by preferring not to take many chances in trying to force turnovers, as evidenced by a mere 2.8 BPG and 6.2 SPG, which rank 245th and 225th in the nation, respectively. The Wolverines' backcourt of sophomore PG Trey Burke (18.8 PPG) and junior SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has carried this team all season. Burke's 3.12 Ast/TO ranks third in the country, and his 6.8 APG places 12th among the nation's leaders. Burke can also score in bunches, averaging 18.7 PPG in his past three games, including 23 points after halftime in the big comeback win over Kansas in the Sweet 16. Although he shoots 38.1% threes for the season, he is just 7-for-27 (26%) from downtown in the NCAA's, something he'll have to improve facing Syracuse's zone defense. Hardaway also shoots a high percentage from behind the arc (38.7%), but is just 2-of-8 in the past two games, and did not shoot well against the Syracuse 2-3 zone two seasons ago, making just 3-of-12 shots (1-of-8 threes) in the loss in Atlantic City. Hardaway Jr. snapped a streak of seven straight double-figure scoring games in the Elite Eight win over Florida, scoring just nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. But this is much more than a two-man team. Six-foot-10 freshman PF Mitch McGary (7.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has been phenomenal in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 17.5 PPG on 73% FG with 11.5 RPG and 2.8 SPG. His 25 points, 14 rebounds and three steals were vital to his team's comeback over Kansas. Freshman PF Glenn Robinson III (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG) played poorly in the Big Ten Tournament (6.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), but he has certainly stepped up in the NCAA's with 13.5 PPG on 62% FG and 6.3 RPG. Another freshman, SF Nik Stauskas (11.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is the team's best three-point shooter at 45% and busted out of his shooting slump in a big way on Sunday. After averaging just 7.8 PPG on 10-of-31 FG and 2-of-16 threes over his previous four games, Stauskas drained 7-of-8 shots (6-of-6 threes) for 22 points against the Gators.
Syracuse's 2-3 zone has been unbelievable in the tournament, holding opponents to 45.8 PPG on 28.9% FG and 15.2% threes. For the season, the school allows 58.6 PPG (21st in nation) on 36.8% FG (3rd in D-I) and 28.2% threes (3rd in nation). Marquette's 39 points on Saturday were the fewest in the shot clock era for an Elite Eight game, as the Golden Eagles shot 22.6% from the floor (12-of-53 FG) and 3-of-24 threes (12.5%). The Orange are averaging 10.8 SPG and 6.5 BPG in the NCAA Tournament, increasing their season averages to 9.1 SPG (10th in D-I) and 6.2 BPG (5th in nation). But it hasn't just been missed shots for opponents, as they are also turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Syracuse has posted a +22 turnover margin for the tournament, committing just 10.8 TOPG and forcing 16.3 TOPG. For the season, the Orange have a +3.2 TO margin, good for 20th in the nation. This team continues to rally around PG Michael Carter-Williams (12.1 PPG). The 6-foot-6 sophomore ranks third in the nation in assists (7.4 APG) and fourth in steals (2.79 SPG). He's averaged 16.0 PPG in his past three games, and did it all on Saturday with 12 points, eight rebounds, six assists and five steals. The only negative for Carter-Williams has been his dreadful foul shooting, as he's made a pitiful 13-of-33 free throws (39%) over the past six games. Senior SG Brandon Triche (13.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.5 APG) has been inconsistent all tourney, but he's still averaging 12.8 PPG despite his 41.7% FG shooting. PF C.J. Fair (14.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) is team's top scorer and rebounder, and has played very well in the NCAA Tournament with 13.8 PPG (47% FG) and 6.0 RPG. Senior PF James Southerland (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is the most potent long-range shooter for the Orange at 40.3% threes, and is coming off a 16-point outburst against Marquette. C Baye Keita (3.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) isn't asked to score much, but has played excellent defense in the NCAA's with 15 rebounds and seven blocks. Triche, Fair, Southerland and Keita all played in that win over Michigan two seasons ago. Triche had six points, four assists and four turnovers, Fair netted just two points in 10 minutes, Southerland didn't take a shot in five minutes and Keita also was 0-for-0 FG, but had nine rebounds and two blocks in his 26 minutes of action.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
