MSU vs. OSU Betting Line – February 23 College Basketball

Carrie Stroup here with your MSU vs. OSU betting line for Tuesday night.  Michigan State -6.5, Total: 139.5

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (22-5, 9-5 Big Ten) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (18-10, 10-5 Big Ten)             

Two of the top teams in the Big Ten will square off on Tuesday when No. 6 Michigan State visits Ohio State.

The Spartans (17-9 ATS overall) are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their past seven games with the only defeat being a one-point overtime loss at 3-point favorite Purdue. Since that loss, they have rolled past two straight opponents, Indiana 88-69 and Wisconsin 69-57 last Thursday. Even with the setback in West Lafayette, this team is still 10-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in non-home games this season.

The Buckeyes (15-13 ATS overall) are riding a four-game win streak (3-1 ATS) including a thrilling 65-62 overtime victory at 2-point favorite Nebraska on Saturday. They actually have a better conference record (10-5 SU) than their Tuesday opponent (9-5 SU) and are a strong 13-4 SU (10-7 ATS) at home this season.

These teams are meeting for the first time this season, and the score figures to be close, as the past nine games have been decided by an average margin of 4.2 PPG with seven of the nine matchups being decided by four points or less. Although Michigan State won the last meeting by a lopsided 76-67 score in the 2015 Big Ten Tournament, Ohio State prevailed in the past two games in Columbus, which were a 69-67 squeaker two seasons ago and a sizable 68-60 win three seasons ago.

Both schools provide a number of favorable betting trends for this meeting, as the Spartans are 11-1 ATS in road games versus good teams (60% to 80% win pct.) after 15+ games over the past two seasons, and are 15-4 ATS as a road favorite (or pick) in the past three seasons where they have outscored hosts by 13.8 PPG.

However, the Buckeyes are 13-5 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season, including 7-1 ATS at home in this scenario, and home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with an average offense (67-74 PPG) facing a good defense (63-67 PPG allowed), after giving up 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 72-35 ATS (67%) since 1997.

Michigan State's offense averages a strong 79.4 PPG this season on excellent percentages of 48.2% FG and 42.4% threes, which is third-best in Division-I behind Oklahoma and SMU. The team has racked up the most assists in the nation at 20.7 APG and commits only 12.1 turnovers per game for a stellar 1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio (2nd in D-I behind Saint Mary's).

The defense is also elite, as it limits opponents to 63.6 PPG on 37.2% FG (2nd in nation behind San Diego State) and 29.4% threes (6th in nation). These numbers are largely due to the team's NCAA-best +11.6 RPG margin, and the Spartans' only glaring weakness is their mere 9.6 forced TOPG, which is the fifth-fewest in the nation.

Senior G Denzel Valentine is having an All-American season with 19.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 7.3 APG. He shoots 47% FG, 45% threes and 86% FT, and has scored at least 19 points in nine straight games where he's averaging 23.0 PPG on 50.3% FG, including a blistering 54% threes (38-of-71). Valentine has also dished out at least 10 assists in the past three contests, tallying 33 helpers and only seven turnovers. He was a big reason why the Spartans swept the Buckeyes last season with 20.0 PPG on 63% FG and 8-of-16 threes with 5.5 RPG, 5.0 APG and 2.5 SPG in the pair of victories.

Senior F Matt Costello (10.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) also played well against OSU last season with a combined 16 points, eight rebounds and three blocks in his 43 minutes of action. He has at least eight points in 15 of the past 17 games, but netted only four points on 2-of-7 FG in Thursday's win over Wisconsin.

Senior G Bryn Forbes (14.1 PPG) is the best long-range shooter on the team with 48.2% threes (15th in nation), and is averaging 17.0 PPG and 54% threes (27-of-50) over the past seven contests. However, Forbes failed to make a single shot in two games versus Ohio State last season, going 0-for-8 FG with just one point in 32 combined minutes.

F Deyonta Davis (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) continues to be a force down low with 2.0 blocks per game (3rd in Big Ten) and is also shooting 62% from the floor this season. The 6-foot-10 freshman has 10 points, 14 rebounds and seven blocks during his team's two-game win streak.

Ohio State's offense is subpar in most areas with 70.9 PPG on 44.5% FG, 34.0% threes and 66.5% FT. However, its defense is top-notch with 66.1 PPG allowed on 38.8% FG and 32.6% threes, and in Columbus, visitors are scoring only 61.2 PPG on 36.6% FG and 31.4% threes. Although the Buckeyes have a minus-0.9 turnover margin due to a meager 5.5 steals per game, they still record 5.5 blocks per game (2nd in Big Ten) and are a quality rebounding team with a +2.8 RPG margin.

OSU relies on four main scorers who all average more than 10 points per game. Junior F Marc Loving (12.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is the leading scorer with 20 double-figure efforts including two in a row. His 13 points and 10 boards last Tuesday versus Michigan marked his fifth double-double of the season. Loving played only 27 minutes versus the Spartans last year, which led to a mere three points on 1-of-4 FG, all of which were three-point attempts.

Sophomore F Keita Bates-Diop (12.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) also has five double-doubles this season and is coming off a 16-point effort on Saturday. Bates-Diop logged only 11 minutes in two meetings with Michigan State last season, but the team's top foul shooter (81%) will be counted on to provide much more this time around.

Sophomore F Jae'Sean Tate (11.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) has been on fire during Ohio State's four-game win streak with 15.0 PPG on 63% FG with 9.0 RPG. Tate was solid in the two defeats to the Spartans last season with 9.0 PPG on 50% FG (9-of-18) with 7.0 RPG.

Freshman G JaQuan Lyle (10.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 4.0 RPG) has really stepped up his offensive game in the past five contests with 15.6 PPG. Lyle has gotten to the foul line 26 times during this stretch, making 22 of those tries (85%). The club's best long-range shooter is sophomore G Kam Williams (7.8 PPG), who drains 47% (40-of-86) threes this season. Williams has been erratic during the team's win streak though with scoring outputs of 2, 19, 10 and 0 points.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter