MSU vs. Purdue Betting Line – January 9

Carrie Stroup here with your MSU vs. Purdue betting line for Tuesday night.  Purdue -1.5 Total: 143

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (20-4, 7-4 Big Ten) at PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (19-5, 7-4 Big Ten)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Purdue -1.5 Total: 143            

No. 8 Michigan State seeks its fifth straight victory on Tuesday night when it visits No. 18 Purdue.

The Spartans (14-9 ATS overall) have won four in a row (SU and ATS) by a hefty margin of +22.5 PPG, which includes an 89-73 romp at rival Michigan on Saturday. They are now 10-2 SU (7-5 ATS) away from home this season where they are averaging 81.7 PPG on 51% FG.

The Boilermakers (12-8 ATS) are just 1-4 ATS in their past five games, which includes a pair of double-digit SU defeats to Iowa on Jan. 24 (83-71) and at Maryland on Saturday (72-61). But the Hawkeyes are the only team that has won in West Lafayette this season, as the Boilers are a near-perfect 13-1 SU (7-3 ATS) at home where they are putting up 82.5 PPG on 48% FG.

Michigan State has dominated this series recently with seven straight SU wins and the only ATS defeat coming in the most recent meeting last March when it was favored by 6.5 points and won by six, 72-66. Purdue's series drought includes losing three straight home games in this series, all by at least 13 points (76-62, 78-65 and 94-79).

There are plenty of reasons to for bettors to take either side on Tuesday, as the Spartans are 23-9 ATS versus bad pressure teams (forcing 12 or fewer TO per game) in the past three seasons, and are 10-1 ATS on the road after a double-digit Big Ten win in this same span.

However, the Boilermakers are 17-5 ATS at home under head coach Matt Painter when the line is +3 to -3, and are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home in the past three seasons versus great shooting teams (48%+ FG).

Michigan State's offense averages 79.4 PPG this season (41st in nation) on strong percentages of 48.4% FG (20th in D-I) and 42.4% threes (4th in D-I). The team has racked up the most assists in the nation at 20.3 APG and commits 12.3 turnovers per game for a stellar 1.66 assist-to-turnover ratio (4th in D-I).

The defense is also elite, as it limits opponents to 62.9 PPG (14th in nation) on 37.0% FG (4th in D-I) and 28.2% threes (4th in nation). These numbers are largely due to the team's NCAA-best +12.8 RPG margin, and the Spartans' only glaring weakness is their mere 9.3 forced TOPG, which is the third-fewest in the nation.

Senior G Denzel Valentine is having an All-American season with 18.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG and 6.7 APG. He shoots 47% FG, 44% threes and 83% FT, and is coming off a huge performance on Saturday with 21 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. That gives Valentine at least 19 points, six rebounds and five assists in six straight games where he has drained 26-of-46 threes (57%). Valentine hit four threes in last year's win over Purdue, finishing with 17 points, six rebounds and two steals.

Senior F Matt Costello (9.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) also had a big day against the Boilermakers last March with 13 points, seven rebounds, four blocks and two steals off the bench. This season, Costello has a team-high six double-doubles, has scored at least eight points in 13 of his past 14 contests and has grabbed at least seven rebounds in a dozen consecutive games.

Senior G Bryn Forbes (14.3 PPG) is the best long-range shooter on the team with 50.3% threes (3rd in nation), and he has been on fire during MSU's four-game win streak with 20.3 PPG on 59% FG and 68% threes (21-of-31). In Saturday's win at Michigan, Forbes pumped in a game-high 29 points thanks in big par to his 8-of-10 threes.

F Deyonta Davis (7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) continues to be a force down low with 2.0 blocks per game (3rd in Big Ten) and is also shooting 63% from the floor this season. The 6-foot-10 freshman has pulled down 9.0 RPG with eight blocks over his past three games.

Purdue has been beating up on opponents all season with a +15.3 PPG margin, good for 9th in the nation. The team produces a pedestrian 78.3 PPG (66th in D-I) on 46.3% FG (72nd in nation) and 34.9% threes (157th in D-I), but allows only 63.0 PPG (15th in nation) on 38.2% FG (11th in D-I) and 30.6% threes (24th in nation).

Like their Tuesday opponent, the Boilermakers are relentless on the glass with a +11.8 RPG margin (3rd in D-I) and 30.2 defensive RPG (2nd in nation behind Michigan State). Another similarity to the Spartans is their lack of turnovers (12.4 TOPG, 127th in D-I) and forced turnovers (10.4 TOPG, 330th in nation), and Purdue is also a great passing team with 18.0 APG (9th in D-I) and a 1.45 Ast/TO ratio (24th in nation).

Senior C A.J. Hammons (14.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is clearly the leader of this program with a 60% FG clip and 73% FT rate, and his 2.4 BPG ranks second in the Big Ten behind only Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff (2.9). Hammons has a current streak of five straight double-figure scoring games, and has piled up 50 points and 21 rebounds during a pair of double-doubles in the past two contests. But Hammons struggled offensively in East Lansing last season when he made only 3-of-12 shots and finished with seven points and eight rebounds.

Freshman F Caleb Swanigan (9.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG) leads the Big Ten in rebounding, and is tied with Wisconsin's Ethan Happ for the conference lead with seven double-doubles. But Swanigan has been shooting poorly in the past four games with a brutal 29% FG clip (10-of-34).

Sophomore F Vince Edwards (10.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.1 APG) has a high basketball IQ with a 2.0 Ast/TO ratio this season, but has also hit a cold spell offensively in the past two games with only 7.0 PPG on 6-of-23 shooting (26%) and 2-of-9 threes.

C Isaac Haas (10.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG) plays only 15.0 MPG this season, but provides instant offense with a 57% FG rate. In the past two games, Haas has 23 points in 27 minutes, making 10-of-16 shots. The 7-foot-2 sophomore scored nine points in 14 minutes off the bench against Michigan State last March.

Senior G Rapheal Davis (9.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.1 APG) has played well over his past three games with 11.7 PPG on 54% FG (4-of-10 threes) and 6.0 RPG. But Davis had an awful performance in East Lansing last season when he scored only two points (1-of-6 FG) in 32 minutes before fouling out.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com