Notre Dame vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your Notre Dame vs. Louisville betting odds for March 4 courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (24-5) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (23-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -4, Total: 135.5
No. 12 Notre Dame visits No. 16 Louisville as longtime Big East foes meet for the first time as ACC members.
No. 16 Louisville and No. 12 Notre Dame go back at it after a year off in a series that’s had its fair share of memories as Big East heavyweights. Louisville seems to be at peace, now that troubled G Chris Jones (13.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.0 APG) is off the team. The mercurial guard, who was suspended previously on two different occasions by Head Coach Rick Pitino, had finally worn out his welcome. In his absence, the Cardinals reeled off road wins at Georgia Tech and Saturday at Florida State. The most recent win over the Seminoles, an 81-59 drubbing (the line was -5), included 21 forced turnovers and had Louisville holding Florida State to 1-for-9 shooting behind the arc.
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Seven days will have passed since Notre Dame was stunned in a 65-60 home loss to Syracuse. Notre Dame is 4-0 SU following a loss this season (0-3 ATS) and 11-1 SU on 3+ days rest. The Fighting Irish really struggled against the Orange zone in the loss, as they went a horrid 3-for-22 (14%) from deep. Louisville is no picnic to play against, but the extreme contrast in defensive style and the time off could be just what Notre Dame needs to see to rebound offensively.
Notre Dame is 5-3 SU (3-5 ATS) on the road in conference play so far, while Louisville is 5-2 SU (2-5 ATS) at home in conference play. Louisville has struggled mightily to cover at home recently (3-10-1 ATS in their past 14 home games) and the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Notre Dame allows eight more points per game on the road and this contributes to four of their past six road game totals going Over.
Historically, Louisville is 8-5 SU (5-8 ATS) since both squads joined the Big East and played each other regularly (2006). The past two meetings between these squads both were won by Louisville (one in Louisville, one in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament), and the Cardinals covered both times as well. Notre Dame’s last win in this series was the five overtime thriller in South Bend, 104-101 where current Fighting Irish senior G Pat Connaughton (13.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.7 threes/game) had 16 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists as a sophomore.
Notre Dame boasts one of the nation’s best offenses (79.1 PPG, 9th in NCAA; 1.21 points/possession, 1st in NCAA; 1.63 A:TO ratio, 4th in NCAA; 39.4% 3PT, 22nd in NCAA), but you wouldn’t have known it from watching them struggle versus Syracuse last Tuesday. Facing Louisville’s swarming defense on the road isn’t how you draw up a bounce-back game, but Notre Dame has exceeded expectations all year. The last time the Fighting Irish faced the Louisville press, star G Jerian Grant (16.9 PPG, 6.6 APG, 50% FG) struggled mightily (6 turnovers, 2-for-8 from three) and sidekick Connaughton couldn’t repeat his five overtime game magic, as he only went for nine points.
F Zach Auguste (12.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 61% FG) has been solid all season, but has struggled to find consistency and his regular allotment of playing time recently (less than 20 MPG in three of the past five games; 7.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG in that span) isn’t helping.
Stepping in to replenish Auguste’s dip in production has been impressive freshman F Bonzie Colson (5.4 PPG). Colson barely played until February, but since Auguste’s one-game academic suspension has found himself part of Coach Mike Brey’s permanent rotation. In Colson’s last five games, he’s poured in 10.4 points per game in just 16 minutes per game and has given the Fighting Irish a defensive presence around the basket (1.2 BPG in that span).
Notre Dame’s offense is rounded out by complementary perimeter players, G Demitrius Jackson (12.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG) who’s not looking for his shot much as of late (8.6 PPG in past five) and G Steve Vasturia (9.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG) who’s logged 36 minutes per game over his past four (2nd on team in that span).
As Louisville finds its updated identity without the departed Jones, it will have to rely on its stars, G Terry Rozier (17.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2 SPG) and F Montrezl Harrell (15.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 57% FG) even more (or so you would think). Rozier has actually struggled mightily from the field since early February (14.3 PPG, 31% FG, 27% 3PT) and Harrell has only scored eight and 16 points respectively in the two games since Jones was dismissed. While Rozier has struggled scoring, he’s picked up in Jones’ absence in looking to distribute and on defense, as his nine assists and six steals against Florida State will show. Make no mistake, though, Louisville isn’t missing a beat because of their oft-overlooked supporting cast.
F Wayne Blackshear (10.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 threes/game) has rebounded from his embarrassing line of zeroes (no points, assists or rebounds) at Syracuse on Feb. 18 to post three straight double-digit scoring efforts, including 18 points at Florida State on Saturday.
G Quentin Snider (2.8 PPG) has seamlessly stepped into Jones’ role in the starting lineup and done an admirable job (10 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG in three games as starter), while Coach Pitino also may have something in reserve G Anton Gill (2.8 PPG), who popped off for 14 points against Florida State.
Up front, F Chinanu Onuaku (3.3 PPG, 1.5 BPG) continues to improve game-by-game, pulling down five or more rebounds in his past five contests. A big factor in Louisville’s success will be seeing if the three-point defense without Jones (Louisville has held Georgia Tech and Florida State to a combined 2-for-21) holds up as stingy against a sharp-shooting team like Notre Dame, or whether the level of opponent propped up the Cardinals’ dominant perimeter defensive play.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
