San Diego State vs. UNLV Line at -9.5: Pick

The San Diego State vs. UNLV line opened at Runnin’ Rebels -11 and has since dropped to -9.5.  You can find all of today’s College Basketball betting lines at Belmont.com here. 

The Mountain West Conference should see a handful of teams reach the big dance in March, but this weekend, conference supremacy is on the line as #14 UNLV hosts #13 San Diego State.

Belmont line and total: TBD

UNLV sits one game back in the Mountain West standings heading into this one as they look to halt the recent dominance (6-0 SU and ATS) by San Diego State in this rivalry.  They have already met once this year as San Diego won 69-67 as 3-point home dogs in a game that saw UNLV make a furious push at the end. The Runnin’ Rebels shot a dismal 35% in that loss and are hoping that a little home cooking will be enough to get the job done this time around.

UNLV is undefeated (13-0) at home this year and have posted a 7-3 ATS record in those games. They average seven more points at home (86.5) than overall (79.3) and know that if they can get this game going at the fast pace they like, a win will likely follow. This continual losing to San Diego State was part of the reason the school brought in Dave Rice to lead the Runnin’ Rebels this year as he continues to change the culture in the locker room. They have lost the last two home games against the Aztecs and being only one game back in the conference standings, the team knows how important a win in this game is. UNLV is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and although they are coming off a tough loss @ Wyoming, they are 4-1 ATS against the number off an ATS loss. San Diego’s defense may be stingy (63 pts allowed per game) but now that they are at home, it is highly unlikely that UNLV shoots 35% again. In fact, on the year they are shooting 52.5% at home, including 44% from beyond the arc, so the points will likely be a plenty in this one.

San Diego State will likely be the underdog and although they are the higher ranked squad, bettors shouldn’t be enticed to take the points with the Aztecs. Two of their three SU losses this year have come away from home and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two. If the game is played at a frenetic pace like UNLV wants, the lack of depth on SD State will hurt them, especially since seven players only saw the court in the last meeting. Jamaal Franklin and James Rahon led the way with 46 of their 69 points in the win, shooting 50% from the field in the process. Both are coming off another impressive performance (40 of 83 pts scored by the two) in a home victory over TCU, but as a team San Diego State is 0-3 ATS in their last three. In fact, the last time they were out on the road they were blown out by 17 against Colorado State and could likely face the same result in this one.

UNLV will get their revenge for the earlier loss and push their home record to a perfect 14-0 after this one.

Take UNLV ATS.