Sweet 16 Free Picks – 2012

BetOnline.com experts have the following Sweet 16 free picks: Baylor at -6.5, Kentucky at -9, North Carolina -10.5 and Kansas -8.5.

Each of these picks have pretty long odds.  Kentucky might be a good bet as the oddsmakers probably want to get their ATS record more in line with their Straight Up record.  How a team can be 34-2 on the season Straight Up and 14-21 Against The Spread is pretty astonishing.

Washington Tucker of BetOnline.com offered his analysis as to why the Wildcats should be able to pull this one off against Indiana:

Kentucky is a team that wears down opponents with its high energy level and constant defensive pressure. Indiana needs Jones in a game like this, but with Jones out for the season with an injury, the cards are simply stacked against the Hoosiers. Kentucky can fall in love with the three-point shot and suffer as a result, but the Wildcats are likely to learn their lesson this time around. All these reasons add up to a Kentucky victory inside the Georgia Dome.

There are two more convincing reasons to pick Kentucky here. One is that in the Dec. 10 game won by Indiana, Kentucky big man Anthony Davis got into foul trouble for one of the few times this season. That’s not likely to happen again. Second, Indiana has been extraordinarily good inside its home gymnasium, Assembly Hall, but very average outside it. Safe to say, this game isn’t inside Assembly Hall. Advantage, Wildcats.

While it’s true Indiana was one of the two teams that beat Kentucky this season, that’s not necessarily a good thing for the Hoosiers.  When revenging a road loss versus an opponent, Kentucky is 36-19 ATS since 1997.  Keeping in mind this is one of the better Wildcats teams over this period, we would not want to be Indiana and tend to agree with Mr. Washington’s pick here. 

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com