Wichita State vs. Louisville Point Spread – Final Four
Carrie Stroup here with your Wichita State vs. Louisville point spread for the Final Four. Claim your FREE $100 BET when you open an online betting account at Sportsbook.com here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Louisville -10.5 & 131
The top-seeded school in the NCAA Tournament takes on the biggest surprise team of the tourney in the first Final Four game when Louisville meets Wichita State on Saturday in Atlanta.
The ninth-seeded Shockers have not only won four straight games to make the Final Four, but they have done so in blowout fashion. They have topped their opponents by an average of 10.5 PPG, and have held four NCAA tourney opponents under 36% FG. Louisville also knows a thing or two about defense, winning 14 straight games (11-3 ATS) by holding all 14 opponents to under 70 points, including limiting 10 of those opponents below 60 points. The Cardinals are now 18-1 SU (17-1-1 ATS) in their past 19 games in the month of March over the past two seasons. The Shockers are a stellar 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring these opponents by 9.7 PPG, while Louisville is 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring its opponents by 16.5 PPG. And while WSU is 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the underdog role, Louisville is 7-3 (SU and ATS) when favored in non-home games.
Wichita State continues to win with a hard-nosed defense that allows only 60.9 PPG on 39.3% FG and 32.1% threes for the season. NCAA Tournament foes have scored 62.3 PPG against the Shockers, but have made just 34.3% of their shots. WSU has outrebounded six of seven opponents in the postseason and now ranks 7th in the nation in rebounding margin (+8.0 RPG). The Shockers offense has been pretty strong as well in the tourney, averaging 72.8 PPG despite a subpar 42.7% FG clip. But three-point shooting has been outstanding over their past three wins, as they are 27-of-60 (45%) from downtown. The Shockers are able to stay fresh and hound opponents on defense because head coach Gregg Marshall gives 11 of his players at least 11 MPG. The three double-digit scorers are junior SF Cleanthony Early (13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and seniors PF Carl Hall (12.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and PG Malcolm Armstead (10.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.8 RPG). Early had just 5.0 PPG on 5-of-21 FG in three games leading up to the tourney, but has stepped up his play in the NCAA's with 14.3 PPG on 48% FG and 7.0 RPG. The 6-foot-8 Hall has scored 10.8 PPG (52% FG) and 4.8 RPG in the NCAA Tournament, but his defense has been huge, blocking 12 shots over the past three games, including six against OSU in the Elite Eight. Armstead has scored 15.5 PPG in the four tourney games, but has made just 36% FG and 6-of-21 threes (29%). He has contributed in other ways though with 6.0 RPG and 2.3 SPG over the past three contests. Freshman SG Ron Baker (8.6 PPG) was 0-for-5 against Pittsburgh to start the tournament, but hasn't missed much in the past two games, scoring 14.5 PPG on 9-of-16 FG (56%), including 6-of-10 from three-point range and 14-of-15 from the foul line. Both sophomore G Tekele Cotton (6.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and freshman G Fred Van Vleet (4.3 PPG) are coming off double-figure scoring games against the Buckeyes, with Cotton netting 10 points with five boards, and Van Vleet contributing 12 points (4-of-8 FG) and two steals.
Louisville ranks fourth in the nation in scoring margin (+16.2 PPG) with 74.3 PPG of offense (31st in nation) and 58.1 PPG allowed on defense (16th in D-I). The Cards outshoot opponents 45.6% FG to 39.2% FG (28th in nation), but they do not rely on the three-point shot like most Rick Pitino-coached teams do. Louisville makes just 5.6 threes per game (231st in D-I) on a subpar 32.8% clip (217th in nation). This team thrives on full-court pressure, using 10.9 steals per game (2nd in D-I) and a +6.1 turnover margin (also 2nd in nation) to get plenty of easy baskets. This defense has forced 17.8 TOPG in the NCAA's, which is a big reason why the team is scoring a hefty 80.8 PPG on 55.1% FG in the Big Dance. Nobody has been scoring quite like SG Russ Smith (18.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who is averaging 26.0 PPG on 54.1% FG in the NCAA Tournament. He's gotten a ton of points by driving to the hoop and drawing fouls, as he's 32-for-40 (80%) from the line in the NCAA's. Smith has also tallied 13 steals in the four wins, to increase his season average to 2.1 SPG. Senior PG Peyton Siva (9.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.2 SPG) is coming off his best NCAA Tournament game against Duke when he scored 16 points (6-of-10 FG) with four assists and zero turnovers in 33 minutes. That was quite an improvement from his four points, three assists and four turnovers in the Sweet 16 against Oregon. This talented backcourt did not play well in last year's Final Four loss to Kentucky though, combining for 8-of-26 shooting (31%) with four assists and six turnovers. However the team's two big men did play well in that lost to UK in New Orleans, as C Gorgui Dieng (10.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG) scored seven points with 12 boards (8 offensive) and four blocks, while PF Chane Behanan (9.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG) scored 10 points with nine rebounds. In this year's NCAA Tournament, Dieng is averaging 11.0 PPG on 20-of-24 FG (83%), 7.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG. His only problem has been foul shooting, where he's made just 2-of-10 FT in the past two games. Behanan is coming off his best NCAA tourney game this year, netting eight points, eight rebounds and three steals versus Duke. Junior swingman Luke Hancock (7.4 PPG) also had his highest scoring game in the Elite Eight scoring 10 points on 2-of-3 FG and 5-of-5 free throws. The Cards rallied against the Blue Devils after sophomore SG Kevin Ware (4.5 PPG) suffered a horrific broken leg late in the first half, beating Duke 50-31 after halftime, and are using Ware's misfortune as further motivation to capture the NCAA Championship.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com
