Some 60 percent of the gambling public believes that there will be a recession by year's end (2025).  That number dipped a bit to 59 percent after the markets opened on Friday.

U.S. companies had trillions of dollars in value wiped out Thursday after President Donald Trump slapped sweeping tariffs on foreign imports.  That's led to a number of analysts and talking heads throwing out the dreaded "R" word.

Banks, retailers, clothing, airlines and technology companies were among the hardest hit, with consumers expected to cut spending if tariffs lead to higher prices for goods and services.

Many economists called the tariffs much worse than expected, and investors dumped shares in companies they predict will suffer most from what is effectively a business tax.

Markets opened down just shy of $500 Friday despite a better than expected jobs report and Trump suggesting late Thursday negotiations with those countries slapped with tariffs were still possible.

Market Rules and Summary

The recession betting market is available at Kalshi.

Each market operates under its own set of regulations which are documented on the markets page. These rules explain the criteria and procedures that determine the market's functionality.

There is a comprehensive rules summary available that provides clarity by detailing the specific outcomes required for a strike to be successful. It elaborates on the conditions under which an outcome would meet the necessary criteria for a strike to win.

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