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The price of crude oil in the wake of the war raging on in the Middle East is fast becoming a hot prediction market option for traders at Polymarket.
The trading volume should exceed $8 million by Monday morning.
Just 6% believe the price of crude oil will rise above the $200 mark by month's end. 54% are confident that price will be above $120.
Oil prices have surged recently due to Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil trade.
As of Sunday, March 8, 2026, WTI crude oil was coming in about $90–$91 per barrel in recent trading while Brent crude (global benchmark) came in at around $92–$93 per barrel.
While severe supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could create extreme volatility, mainstream analysis does not support a move to $200 in that timeframe.
Market Rules at Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Average Gas Price Markets - Week's End
The average price of gas trading should be hot weekly.
This reflects a significant, rapid increase from earlier in the week, with prices rising almost 50 cents from the previous week.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
