College Football Betting Action, Line Movement Monitor for September 19, 2023
Week 3 opinion games went 6-1. These are games where the oddsmakers move a number to encourage even more lopsided action on one side. For example, FSU was seeing better than 70% of the public action against Boston College, yet oddsmakers moved the number to make the line more favorable for the Noles.
These were those games with only Duke the big public favorite coming through:
Duke -19.5 to 16.5 Northwestern – 78% to 86% - Duke wins by 24
Toldeo – -8.5 to –7 San Jose State – 79 to 80% - Toledo wins by just 4
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FSU –28 to –25.5 Boston College 70% to 73% - FSU only wins by 3
Arkansas –10.5 to –8.5 BYU – 66 to 73% - BYU upset by 7
Eastern Michigan –9.5 to –7 MASS 61 to 72% - EMU only wins by 2
Cincinnati –16 to –14.5 Miami Ohio 65 to 68% - Cincinnati wins by just 7
UGA -27.5 to 26.5 South Carolina – 61 to 63% - UGA only wins by 10
Three Marquee Games Seeing the Most Action Early
- Florida State PK to -2.5 Clemson
- Colorado +16.5 to +21 Oregon
- Ohio State -3 to -3.5 Notre Dame
A close examination of these three games shows that action was especially heavy at greater than 80% on FSU. That line was moving in reaction to this early lopsided volume.
In the Buffs-Ducks game, early public love is on Colorado. The line though is encouraging more action on the Buffaloes (+16.5 to +21). It's a tough pill to swallow, but Ducks may have this one.
Notre Dame is also getting much of the early public support (78%) yet the line has moved from +3 to +3.5, making Ohio State an enticing play, at least early on.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
