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Miami (10-1 Straight Up) only needs to win this weekend and the Canes will head to next weekend's Atlantic Coast Conference title game. A loss against Syracuse, their playoff chances are likely shot.
The Orange are a good team. They've lost just three games this season. Miami is 6-5 Against The Spread while Syracuse is 5-6 ATS.
“There is no next week,” Miami quarterback Cam Ward said, “without this week.”
No. 8 Miami (10-1, 6-1 ACC, No. 6 CFP) goes to Syracuse (8-3, 4-3) on Saturday in the regular season finale for both clubs. The Hurricanes are playing for championships, the Orange — with a victory Saturday and then in a bowl game — could get to 10 wins in Fran Brown's first season as coach.
“Anytime you get late in the season and you have a meaningful game, it means you’ve done a lot of things right,” said Syracuse's Kyle McCord, who will face Ward in a matchup of star quarterbacks. “You look around the country, there's a lot of teams who thought at this time of year they'd be playing for something big and something important that aren't. For us to be in this situation, this game and have a great opponent coming ... it means a lot.”
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What the Line Should Be
The betting public is backing Syracuse to at least cover a +11 point spread. The interesting thing about that is the line has moved up further to encourage more wagering on the Orange.
Sagarin has a number of 8.54 for Miami. Overlays in the neighborhood of 10 to 11 tend to bode well for the dog.
Comparables
A few comparables include:
- NC State -10 to -12.5 East Carolina (dog covers with NC State 1-point win) Overlay NC State 6.31 3.5 to 5.5 - Home dog covers.
- Maryland -10.5 to -11.5 Indiana (home dog Indiana covers with MD 5 point win) Maryland 7.13 Overlay of 3.5 to 4.5 - Home dog covers.
- ECU -10 to -13 Temple (home dog Temple covers with East Carolina 3 point win) ECU 9.18 Overlay of 1 to 4 points - Home dog covers.
As you can see, the past trends love the home dog here.
Winners and Whiners Prediction
Winners and Whiners is on Syracuse.
"Miami has struggled on the road to put away with opponents, with their last handful of road games coming down to the wire. Syracuse is more than capable of moving the ball and have the blueprint from Georgia Tech as to how best navigate finding success against the Hurricanes. Miami will grab the win considering their struggles in covering the spread, as well as Syracuse flying under the radar at 8-3, this one is set up perfect for Syracuse to keep it close."
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