Line Analyses for 2024 NFL Week 4 Games

Here are your line analyses for the 2024 NFL Week 4 games.

Saints @ Falcons

The New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons opened with a line of PICK'EM and over the course of the week, Atlanta became as much as a -3 point favorite.  Sagarin gives us a number of 2.11, which is right on the money.  Favorites in this scenario have covered in 77% of games in our sample compiled over the past two years, making Atlanta a decent enough play for some.  But we suggest taking a hard look at other variables as well.

Vikings @ Packers

News that quarterback Jordan Love is set to play this Sunday has done nothing to move the line.  Perhaps the oddsmakers anticipated this?

Love sprained the MCL in his left knee in the season opener against Philadelphia.

Love actually returned to practice the week of the Titans game and was close to returning last Sunday.

The Packers won both games without Love.   Sagarin gives us a number of Green Bay 2.75 whereas the line has moved from -2 to -3.  That gives us an accurate line.  As noted above, favorites in the 2.5/3 range when the number is accurate have performed at a 77% clip.

Rams @ Bears

The Rams opened at +1 with the line moving to +3. We get a number from Sagarin of 1.71.

Broncos @ Jets

This number is staying above the 7 (to Jets -7.5).  Sagarin suggests this one is right on the money at 7.97.

Eagles @ Bucs

The line on this game has moved from Eagles -2.5 to -1.  This one we have a decent enough underlay heading into Sunday as Sagarin's number comes out to 3.8.  Underlays in this range have gone 88% for the favorite.   The Eagles look like a good one here.  But be careful here.  DeVonta Smith did not attend practice this week. He’s still recovering from the concussion he suffered in Week 3. Sunday will mark Smith’s second-ever missed game since his NFL career began in 2021.

Commanders @ Cardinals

The line has dropped from Arizona -4.5 to -3.5. Sagarin gives us a number of 5.87, suggesting a nice sized underlay. Our model does not offer an edge in this range with an underlay.

Bills @ Ravens

Baltimore have moved between a -2 and -2.5 favorite.  We got the wrong team favored as Sagarin gives us a number of Bills 3.18.  There is no edge here based on our model outputs.