Graham Mertz Starting for Florida Does Little to Impact Betting Line as Lagway Expected to Play Key Role

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Published on:
Sep/14/2024

The announcement that Graham Mertz will be starting for Florida Saturday against Texas A&M has done little to move the betting line, though the cat is mostly out of the bag following earlier reporting.

The "starting role" was confirmed a little after 10 am ET and the line moved from Texas A&M -3 to Texas A&M -3.  In other words, we see ZERO in the way of any line movement.  But Mertz starting is really just a technicality, as we'll examine momentarily.

Florida comes into this game 1-1, as do the Aggies. But Texas A&M has a Sagarin Rating of 82.83 compared to the Gators 76.31, hence the 3-point favorite status on the road.

Sagarin suggests the Texas A&M -3 point line is on the money once we factor in home field advantage for Florida.

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Highly touted freshman DJ Lagway threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns in his first collegiate start last week with Florida easily beating lower-division Samford 45-7 on Saturday to give embattled coach Billy Napier a brief reprieve following a season-opening debacle against Miami.

Napier told ESPN that Mertz would be the first quarterback on the field and that Lagway would play specific possessions each half and certain plays throughout possessions.

"Both players will play. They have a great relationship," Napier said. "The staff and team have confidence in both players. Both have been impressive this week. It's a positive for our team as a whole."

This confirms what was widely reported earlier in the week that Florida would be moving to the two-quarterback system.  But even before that news first broke, Texas A&M had only been favored by a point more (-4).

Prop bet building options were not available for the quarterback position in this game for either side.

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