More Line Analyses for College Football Games September 21

Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina

Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina featured a line of Cavaliers -3.5.

Virginia is looking to continue its strong start and match its win total from last year in a difficult place to play in Coastal Carolina. The Cavaliers lost to former Atlantic Coast Conference member Maryland, 27-13, last week. The Chanticleers are trying for their first win over an ACC team. The only other such game in program history was a 49-3 loss at Clemson in 2009.

Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored here as they have Coastal Carolina with a number of 2.11.

While we do not have enough data from our model over the past two years for scenario where the wrong team is favored at 3/3.5, this is clearly an overlay.  Those favor the dog at 81% in 27 sample games.

USC vs. Michigan

USC opened at -6.5 with the number dropping all the way down to -4.5.

Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored in this one with the Wolverines 1.47.

The Trojans are making their Big Ten debut, and would love to get off to a good start by beating the defending national and Big Ten champions in the Big House. The Wolverines have won a school-record 25 straight Big Ten games, including three for conference championships, and have been ranked for 50 straight weeks since early in the 2021 season.

Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

Last week, the Scarlet Knights were a +7.5 underdog when this line opened.  Throughout this week they've mostly sat at +3.5.

This line is pretty accurate as Sagarin gives us a number of 4.16.  Our model does not detect any edge here.

Virginia Tech, coming off a 37-17 victory over Old Dominion last Saturday, is looking to snap a 11-game losing streak against Power Four nonconference opponents and Notre Dame. Rutgers is coming off a bye week and enters the game after beating Howard and Akron by a combined score of 93-24. Rutgers has won nine consecutive nonconference games and beat Virginia Tech 35-16 last season.

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville

This one has moved from -10.5 to -10 with the Cardinals favored.  It turns out this line is on the money with Sagarin giving us 10.89.

Georgia Tech resumes ACC play seeking to rebound and remain in league contention after losing 31-28 two weeks ago at Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets also seek their best five-game start since 5-0 in 2014.  Louisville opens ACC play after a bye following routs of FCS Austin Peay and Jacksonville State by a combined 111-14 margin.  They beat the Yellow Jackets by five points last season.

Arizona State vs. Texas Tech

Undefeated Arizona State (3-0) is the +3.5 road dog against 2-1 Texas Tech.  The line has been moving between the 3 and 3.5.  We get a number of 4.67, suggesting a slight underlay. These have been good for the favorite with our model. 

Texas Tech got off to a rough start this season before dominating North Texas last week. The Big 12 opener for both teams is a chance for Arizona State to have its first 4-0 record since 2016.  The Sun Devils thus far are one of the more pleasant surprises in 2024. The Sun Devils are playing their first conference game since joining the Big 12.

We believe Texas Tech wins by 4 here.

Purdue vs. Oregon State

We are on the Beavers here as Purdue is playing their first road game and must travel across country.

But more importantly, our model likes Oregon State as there appears to be a decent size underlay of nearly five points (the Beavers are a -3.5 favorite here).

With three of the next four on the road and potential Top 25 matchups with No. 23 Nebraska and No. 24 Illinois looming, Purdue needs the win. Oregon State is coming off a loss at home to Oregon 49-14.