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Minnesota (5-3) takes on an Illinois team that is 6-2. It's the Golden Gophers who are favored on the road here.
Line Analysis and Action
- Opening Line - Illinois opened as the -1.5 favorite
- Line Trend - Minnesota has been a favorite all week long with the line moving from -1 to -3.
- Sagarin Number - Minnesota 1.5. The number was right early in the week but we now have an overlay.
- Action - The money being wagered was at 91% on Minnesota and the line has moved accordingly.
Historic Comparables
- Miami -2.5 Virginia (home dog Virginia covers with Miami winning by just two points) Miami 0.65 Overlay of 2 points (2023).
- Oklahoma -2.5 TTU (home dog Texas Tech covers and wins in overtime) OK 1.48 Overlay of 1 (2022)
But we also had this one, that was more of a push:
- Ole Miss -2.5 /-3 Texas A&M (road favorite Mississippi mostly covers and pushes with 3 point win) Ole Miss 1.21 Overlay of 1 to 1.5 points.
Tony Caliente's Take
"Overlays in the 2.5 to 3 range bode really well for the underdog. It's actually one of the best outcome percentages with a large enough sampling using our two-year model. Illinois has also won the last three seasons.
The Winners and Whiners Take
"The Gophers have dominated the turnover margin, found their passing game, and cruised to three straight wins. They have now won three straight Big Ten games and covered the spread in four straight games. On the flip side, Illinois comes into this game a bit frazzled after being blasted by Oregon on the road. The Fighting Illini have also lost three of their last four games at home in November heading into Saturday's contest. They have also failed to cover the number in 10 of 11 games at home against unranked opponents. The once-vaunted Illini defense has been exposed, particularly against the run, which may allow Fleck to go back to his roots a bit here and pound the ball at the Illini, opening up the passing game even more for his team. Ultimately, this game will be decided by turnovers. The Gophers have been outstanding in the last three games in turnover margin and are 5-0 this season when winning the turnover margin. Illinois is coming off a two-turnover game against the Ducks and any turnovers in this one will do them in."
More Considerations
Defensive backs Terrance Brooks, Torrie Cox Jr., Kaleb Patterson and Tyler Strain also were hurt during the Oregon game, but Illinois coach Bret Bielema thinks they’ll be able to play Saturday when the No. 24 Illini try to regroup against Minnesota, one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten.
Pat Bryant suffered a concussion during last week's game against Oregon. Bryant, who has caught 34 passes for 510 yards and seven TDs, is in concussion protocol this week.
Illinois is 5-0 at home this season and Bielema is 10-0 lifetime against the Gophers.
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