Nebraska vs. Iowa Betting Preview

Nebraska and Iowa continue their day-after-Thanksgiving tradition of playing for the Heroes Trophy. The Cornhuskers became eligible to play in their first bowl since 2016 with their win over Wisconsin last week. Now their task is to position themselves for the best possible destination. Iowa is going for its ninth straight year with at least eight wins, not counting the shortened 2020 pandemic season.

Iowa has won eight of the last nine games in this series, Though Nebraska won and covered the current 3.5 spread over the last two meetings. 

How Accurate is the Line on This Game?

We've seen this one open as high as Iowa -5.5 but the line settled in at -3 heading into this afternoon.  Sagarin gives us a number of 7.99. 

Underlays with the line in the 3/3.5 region have tended to do well for the favorite in college football.

Action was relatively balanced for this game.

Comparables

Here we can look at games where there is an underlay and the home team is favored.  The line range would be anything from +5.5 to +3 provided that number does not go below the 3.  Let's see if anything has stood out over these past three years.

• Arizona +4.5 to +3 BYU (BYU 7.83 Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
• Minnesota +5.5 to +3.5 Iowa (Iowa 6.45 - Underlay of 1 to 3) - Road dog covers.
• Missouri +5.5 to +3.5 South Carolina (road dog Missouri covers and wins) South Carolina 8.17 Underlay 3.5 to 5.5 points - Road dog covers.

• Atlanta +4.5 to +3.5 Washington (home favorite WAS covers and wins by 6) Washington 6.05 Underlay 1.5 to 2.5 - Home favorite covers.

As you can see, this particular line trend has tended to lean more towards the road dog.

Key Matchup

Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson vs. Nebraska run defense. The forecast calls for temperatures to drop into the teens, which probably means lots of work for the Big Ten rushing leader. Last week he had a career-high 35 carries for 164 yards against Maryland. The Cornhuskers have been decent against the run, allowing 126 yards per game against conference opponents.

Players to Watch

Nebraska: QB Dylan Raiola's confidence is on the rise as he goes into his third game with Dana Holgorsen as offensive coordinator. Holgorsen has designed a plan that accentuates the freshman's strengths as a passer. Raiola is in for a challenge this week. He likely will face more pressure than Wisconsin put on him, and he'll have to handle adverse weather and a hostile crowd.

Iowa: DL Ethan Hurkett was one of the stars of last year's 13-10 victory in Lincoln, intercepting a pass with 15 seconds left to set up the winning field goal. Last week he had six tackles against Maryland, including a career-high three tackles for loss and two sacks.

Husker Online Expert Picks

Sean Callahan of HuskerOnline observes: "The Huskers have faired well against teams like Iowa that want to run it physically straight at them. Everyone knows what the Hawkeyes are going to do, and Tony White will have a plan for it. I also think Dana Holgorsen’s third game will pick up where things left off vs. Wisconsin and Dylan Raiola will hit some big throws."

Happy game day! Here are today's keys to victory for Nebraska vs. Iowa and the @HuskerOnline score predictions. https://t.co/49Uu4oDGid #Huskers

— Sean Callahan (@Sean_Callahan) November 29, 2024

Steven Sipple of HuskerOnline writes: "Look for Nebraska’s front six/seven to bow up and hold Kaleb Johnson to a manageable rushing total. Let’s face it, that’s largely what this game is about. But it’s also about you-know-who. Yes, Dana Holgorsen is a quite a wild card for the Huskers, especially against an extremely well-coached Hawkeye defense with a complicated scheme in the secondary. With a win here, look for Nebraska to head to Tampa for a bowl game."

Greg Liodice of The Action Network has a different take:

Nebraska vs Iowa

"The Huskers are solid at preventing Havoc, but Iowa is exceptional at generating it."

See @Gregasus14's Pick: https://t.co/vthjjvRKE3

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 29, 2024

"The Huskers are solid at preventing Havoc, but Iowa is exceptional at generating it.  Raiola gets sacked 2.2 times per game, which is 79th in the country. Iowa has some dogs on the frontline, such as Ethan Hurkett, Aaron Graves, and Max Llewellyn, who have combined for 15 sacks.

"If the d-line wasn’t enough for you, linebacker Jay Higgins is tied for fourth in interceptions, with DBs Quinn Schulte and Jermari Harris having three. Harris specifically leads the team in passes defended and is the only one with a pick-six.

"Take the points with the Hawkeyes as they win their second consecutive Heroes Game."