Ohio State vs. Penn State: We See a Pretty Big Overlay

One of the most highly anticipated games of Week 10 in college football features No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State.

Line Analysis and Action

• Opening Line - Ohio State -3.5
• Line Trend - As of Wednesday, the line hadn't moved off the -3.5.
• Sagarin Number - Sagarin gives us a number of Buckeyes O.54, indicating a decent sized overlay.  Sagarin does not take into account the possibility that Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar may not be playing however. 
• Action - Action was balanced.

Overlays in the 3/3.5 region tend to go heavily in favor of the dog, but again we may have a situation where Allar is not suiting up.  More on that momentarily.

Tony Caliente's Take

"Overlays, whether just above the 3 or just below the 3, have performed quite well for the underdog.  Clearly there is an overlay here but Allar's potential absence

Historic Comparables

Baylor -3.5 West Virginia - Home dog West Virginia covers and wins 34-31. Sagarin gave us a number of Baylor 2.08 with an overlay of 1.5 observed.

Drew Allar Status

Penn State coach James Franklin isn’t sure if starting quarterback Drew Allar will be ready to play when the third-ranked Nittany Lions host No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday.

Allar suffered an apparent left knee injury late in the first half of Penn State’s 28-13 win over Wisconsin last weekend. He returned for the second half wearing a knee brace, but after a short, ineffective warm-up, yielded the offense to Beau Pribula.

The strong-armed triggerman of Andy Kotelnicki’s dynamic offense, Allar has completed 117 of 164 passes for 1,640 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He hasn’t missed a game yet since taking over the starting job at the start of the 2023 season.

“It’s too early to tell at this point, but he’s played enough football that I think the decision will go all the way up to game time,” Franklin said.

Franklin said after the victory over the Badgers that Allar told him he “couldn’t move well enough” to finish the game.

The steady 3.5 line could be an indication that the oddsmakers believe Allar will start for this game.

Ohio State has won the last three seasons against Penn State, easily covering the current 3.5 number.