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Penn State takes on Minnesota Saturday. The Nittany Lions have just one loss on the season while Minnesota comes into this game 6-4 Straight Up but with five covers out of their last six.
What's at Stake
Penn State is in prime position for a spot in the new 12-team College Football Playoff and still in the mix to make the Big Ten championship game, with a home game against struggling Maryland waiting after this challenge on the road against a well-rounded opponent. Losing to Minnesota team coming off a bye week would be a big blow to Penn State’s playoff push and all but take a conference title off the table. Minnesota can vastly upgrade its bowl bid with a win and take some momentum into a final-week rivalry game at Wisconsin.
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Penn State @ Minnesota
Opening Line - The line opened at Penn State -12.
Line Trend - We've seen the number as high as 12.5 but the trend has mostly been 12 to -10.5.
Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of 8.96 indicating a definitive overlay.
Action Trend – Penn State was seeing 65% of the action.
Comparables
- Wisconsin -13 to -9.5 Nebraska (home dog Nebraska covers with Wis 1 point win) Wis 7.25 Overlay 2 to 5.5 points - Home underdog covers.
Key Matchup
Penn State TE Tyler Warren vs. Minnesota defense. Warren, a first team AP Midseason All-America selection, totaled 190 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage last week in a blowout win at Purdue. He is second among all FBS tight ends in receiving yards (808) and also taken 13 of his 16 rushing attempts for either first downs or touchdowns. The Gophers are second in the FBS in passes defended per game, tied for fourth in interceptions per game and tied for 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
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