Penn State vs. USC Betting Preview October 12

The Penn State vs. USC line has moved from Nittany Lions -5.5 to -3.5 in recent days.

Sagarin suggests quite the overlay here as they give us a number of Penn State 1.26.  Overlays in the 3/3.5/4 range have performed especially well for the dog using our model developed over the past two years.

Minnesota upset Southern California last week 24-17.

USC started sluggishly on offense for the third straight week. They trailed Michigan 14-3 at halftime of a 27-24 loss and fell behind Wisconsin 21-10 at the break before rallying to win 38-21.

No. 4 ranked Penn State lost second-year right tackle and first-year starter Anthony Donkoh in the first half of last weekend’s win over UCLA due to injury with the team's best offensive linesman listed as "questionable" for this game.

Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports offered the following prediction for Saturday’s matchup between Penn State and USC:

“USC is one of the most traveled teams in the country with a neutral field game versus LSU, then a bye week and home game versus Utah State followed by a tough stretch of going to Michigan (27-24 loss), coming back to L.A. to host Wisconsin (38-21 comeback win), and a road trip to Minnesota (24-17 loss).

Now, USC is back at home to host Penn State who has not been on the road since Week 1 when they made a short trip to West Virginia (34-12). USC was sluggish in the last two first halves, but Penn State wasn’t much better hosting UCLA last week.

The Trojans’ opportunity will come from a quick start for a Penn State team that hasn’t played in another time zone yet. I would target USC in the first quarter at +0.5 points or the +1.5 hosting Penn State.”