Tennessee vs. Ohio State Betting Preview - College Football Playoffs

The line on the Tennessee vs. Ohio State has moved from Buckeyes -7.5 to -7.

Line Analysis

Sagarin suggests the line should be Ohio State 4.69 (-4.5), an indication that we do have an overlay here.

Comparables

• Louisville +7.5 to +7 Clemson (home favorite Clemson covers and wins by a lot) Clemson 4.95 Overlay 2 to 2.5 - Favorite covers. 
• Saints +7.5 to +7 Chargers (Chargers 3.39 Overlay) - Favorite covers.

Betting Trends

• Four of Tennessee's past five games have gone over the total after its previous four games went under.

• Tennessee is 1-7 ATS as seven-point underdog since Josh Heupel took over in 2021, 2nd-worst among FBS over that span, only ahead of Cincinnati who is 0-6 (min. 5 games)

• Ohio State is 9-5 ATS at home since start of last season; T-3rd in Big Ten during that span.

• Ohio State is 5-9 ATS when spread is single digits since Ryan Day took over in 2019, tied for 4th-worst in FBS over that span

What’s at Stake?

Ohio State has the bad taste of that fourth consecutive Michigan loss to wash out of the Buckeyes’ mouths. The eighth-seeded Buckeyes also are playing to gain back respect in this newly expanded College Football Playoff and start a run toward their first national championship since the 2014 season. The No. 7 seed Volunteers emerged from the tough SEC and now have their first true shot at a title since 1998. Their lone stumbles during the season came on the road at Arkansas and Georgia, so the Vols also have to prove they can handle a rough road environment at night. The winner gets a trip to the Rose Bowl to play top-seeded Oregon.

Key Matchup

Ohio State offensive line vs. Tennessee defensive front. The Buckeyes’ O-line has been reshuffled several times due to injuries, perhaps most significantly to center Seth McLaughlin. The weaknesses showed when Ohio State repeatedly failed to run the ball against Michigan. Tennessee has one of the premier defensive lines in the country, featuring defensive end James Pearce Jr., a potential first-round NFL draft pick.

Players to Watch

Tennessee: QB Nico Iamaleava opened 2024 leading the Vols to a rout of Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. Now the redshirt freshman will play the biggest game yet, and Iamaleava is coming off one of his best performances of the season. Four of his 11 victories have come against teams ranked at the time of kickoff. He threw for 2,512 yards with 19 touchdown passes with only five interceptions.

Ohio State: Buckeyes QB Will Howard will try to get the ball out to freshman WR Jeremiah Smith, who has been tremendous this season. He’s compiled 934 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns but wasn’t a factor in the 13-10 loss to Michigan.

Fun Facts and Trends

• This will be Tennessee's first ever game played in Ohio.
• Vols coach Josh Heupel is 30-8 since the start of the 2022 season. Those 30 wins are the most since Tennessee won 30 games between the 1998 and the 2000 seasons.
• Tennessee is fourth nationally giving up 13.9 points and 278.3 total yards per game.
• The Vols ranked eighth in rushing defense (99.6 yards per game).
• The Vols allowed 18 offensive touchdowns this season, third-fewest in the FBS.
• Only two players who started on the Ohio State offensive line in the season opener remain in the lineup because of injuries.
• Ohio State is No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing 241.1 yards per game. The Buckeyes are second to Texas in pass defense and seventh in run defense.