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The College Football Playoff is expanding. The path to the national championship is wider than ever. Perennial powerhouses like Ohio State and the surging Indiana Hoosiers predictably dominate current odds boards. However, the new 12-team format introduces immense value. Savvy bettors should look past the top three or four favorites.
The end of the 2025 college football regular season is upon us. The final CFP rankings are just around the corner. This is the perfect time to identify undervalued teams. These squads possess the talent, coaching, and momentum to make a surprising run at the title.
The Landscape: Current Championship Favorites
To properly frame our longshots, we must acknowledge the heavy favorites. As of late November 2025, the odds to win the Championship are heavily skewed toward a few select teams. Ohio State leads the pack, with odds hovering around +175 to +185. Indiana sits firmly as the second-favorite at +500. Just behind them, Texas A&M and Notre Dame hold respectable positions, generally falling in the +750 to +1000 range.
Georgia rounds out this elite group at approximately +1000. These teams are rightly positioned due to their stellar records and elite talent. Still, the potential for one, two, or even three upsets in the expanded CFP bracket is significantly higher than before. True longshot value lies further down the board. The rewards there drastically outweigh the perceived risk.
Longshot Value Picks for the 2025 CFP
What defines an undervalued longshot? It's a team with a proven ability to compete with the best. They must have a favorable path to the expanded playoffs. Crucially, their championship odds must be significantly longer than their actual chances. We spotlight three teams fitting this criterion: Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Miami.
1. Ole Miss Rebels (Odds: +2000 to +2700)
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels have done more than merely "fight for a playoff spot." They have demonstrated the necessary offensive firepower to win a title in the modern era of college football. Why are they undervalued? In the loaded SEC, Ole Miss often gets overshadowed. Their current odds, sitting between +2000 and +2700, suggest they are a tier below the top contenders.
The case for a title run is strong. Ole Miss's offense, led by a talented quarterback and elite skill position players, can score with anyone. Kiffin has dramatically improved the defense, turning a former liability into a respectable, opportunistic unit. Their 10-1 record speaks volumes. In the new 12-team format, Ole Miss is exactly the high-variance, high-reward pick that can shock the system.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Odds: +4000 to +4500)
The Sooners have had a solid, if unspectacular, season after a very hot start. This has led to a dip in their odds. This creates a tremendous buying opportunity. Oklahoma has seen its odds tumble from around +2000 earlier in the season. The current +4000 to +4500 range is due to perceived struggles. This slide is not about their overall quality. It's about the market overreacting to minor stumbles within their conference slate.
Despite a few slip-ups, their core talent is undeniable. Head coach Brent Venables has built a truly disruptive defense. The offense remains potent. The shift to the 12-team format is a massive benefit. An occasional loss is no longer a death sentence. At 9-2, they are firmly positioned for an at-large bid. At 40-to-1 odds, you get an elite program with a championship pedigree.
3. Miami Hurricanes (Odds: +7000 to +8000)
This is a true, high-payout flier. They are being disproportionately penalized. They play in a slightly weaker conference compared to the SEC and Big Ten behemoths. The ACC generally receives less national respect. This leads to longer odds for its non-Clemson/FSU contenders. This is why Miami is so undervalued. The Hurricanes have proven quarterback talent in high-profile transfer Carson Beck. Mario Cristobal has overseen significant strides on both the offensive and defensive lines.
The odds of +7000 to +8000 are simply too high for a team with their roster. Miami's path to the CFP is actually cleaner than any SEC or Big Ten bubble team. If they win out and take the ACC Championship, they will be in the 12-team field. They will likely earn a seed between 5 and 8. However, they have the roster talent to match up physically with almost any opponent. If their defense plays to its potential and Beck continues his high-level play, they are a live underdog.
The New CFP Dynamic: Why Longshots Win
The move to a 12-team playoff, fully implemented for the 2025 season, fundamentally changes the calculus for betting on futures. First, the new format offers forgiveness for losses. No longer does a team need an undefeated or one-loss record. A two-loss SEC or Big Ten team with strong metrics will make the field. This was impossible under the four-team format. Second, there is increased variance.
More games mean more opportunities for upsets. A team needs to play three or four perfect games in December and January — they don’t need a flawless regular season. Finally, the “hot hand” factor becomes essential. Teams that peak late in the season, such as Ole Miss or Oklahoma, have a considerable advantage. They have the luxury of getting into the tournament and riding a late surge, a pattern bettors often watch closely when checking Top College Football Props at FanDuel. This phenomenon is well-known from March Madness.
Undervalued Longshots
The 2025 NCAAF Championship is wide open outside of the top two favorites. Ohio State and Indiana are formidable, yes. But the expanded playoff is a long-shot bettor's dream. Invest in teams like Ole Miss, Oklahoma, or a true flier like Miami. This offers a combination of high potential payout and a newly viable path to the title game. This makes them the most undervalued teams on the board today.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
