Weekly Review From Behind the Desk Week 6 - 2024

In this article we will talk about all things CFB that we saw from the House point of view at BetAmapola sportsbook. We will do a college football recap, as well as a separate NFL recap. You can follow along at @BetAmapola on twitter so you can get a real time look at the action we are taking and where the money is at, along with any other juicy nuggets we can provide. Feel free to send us a DM on twitter or contact the Amapola Resort located in beautiful Jaco Beach, Costa Rica for more information.

Day of the Upsets: 

Obviously the big upset of the day was Vandy beating Alabama in what was a crazy game. Outside of that, there were several other ranked teams that were upset in conference matchups against unranked foes.

The Arkansas Razorbacks pulled off a home upset for the ages as they took down the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers, 19–14, in Sam Pittman’s first victory over an AP top-five opponent as Arkansas coach. Pittman has been on the hot seat all season, but his defense pulled through against one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, and his program is now 4–2 and 2–1 in SEC play.

The No. 10 Michigan Wolverines continued their quarterback shuffle in a 27–17 road defeat at the Washington Huskies. Alex Orji started for the Wolverines, but was replaced by seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle, who was available for the first time this season after recovering from an elbow injury.

Tuttle had the offense moving a bit more crisply in the passing game at points, but a fourth-quarter fumble followed by a costly interception helped Washington pull away. Perhaps Tuttle is the starter moving forward, but the Wolverines don’t appear to be playoff caliber with their inability to consistently complete a forward pass.

The No. 11 USC Trojans also fell 24–17 on the road against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Quarterback Max Brosmer scored on a sneak with less than a minute to play and the Minnesota defense forced three USC turnovers to capture the win.

The No. 22 Louisville Cardinals struggled to keep up with the unranked SMU Mustangs in the first half, and by the time the Cardinals caught up, they couldn’t get over the hump in a 34–27 loss. Louisville went just 4-of-12 on third down and couldn’t get off the field on defense as SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings accounted for 394 all-purpose yards.

There’s always at least one week on the college football calendar every season that doesn’t look too exciting on paper but delivers. Saturday was certainly that day. Overall, the Sportsbook has been noticing more money on both sides of the ML of these big favorite games. Small bettors like to parlay the favorites, while others are taking the ML of the big dogs that they feel are being too disrespected. So while there have been many big upsets, the Sportsbook is not cleaning up on these games as one might think. 

2nd Half Truck Jobs:

We have seen a trend going on during halftime bets for College Football and NFL bets. The first bet is usually followed by a group of players who come in and steam chase on top of him. These bets are hitting at an insane rate. We will take a bet at -7 for the 2H, move it all the way to 9.5 or sometimes even 10, and we still struggle to receive any take back. Nobody wants to oppose this group of 2H bettors as they have been absolutely crushing it. It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues, because people are definitely taking note of what they are doing. 

Expanded Playoff:

We’re already seeing one byproduct of the expanded CFP.

Group of 5 teams have a lot more to play for. I’m not saying they had nothing to play for before, but when there’s a designated spot in the 12-team CFP field, it just feels different. Northern Illinois just picked up a win that might be unmatched by any of its peers with a top-five win over Notre Dame. Boise State had an opportunity to get a win over Oregon to majorly boost its CFP resume and just missed out — but should still get credit for playing the Ducks so closely. The committee is well-aware of Ashton Jeanty and what damage he can do. This matters! And I think we’re already seeing that in effort, motivation and even in results so far. Overall, I think this gives more fanbases a chance to hope for glory, and it has been really fun to watch. 

Personal Thoughts and Nuggets:

-Army and Navy are Legit:

The two service academies continue to excel and set up the possibility of the rivalry’s most hyped meeting in generations. Army put Tulsa to bed early and cruised to a 49-7 win behind 321 rushing yards and an impressive 26.7 yards per pass attempt. Navy took care of business against the third wheel in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, beating Air Force 34-7 to snap the Falcons’ four-game winning streak in the series. The Black Knights and Midshipmen are a combined 10-0 for the first time since 1945. Both of these teams can absolutely mash the ball down the field. 

-NIL and Transfer Portal narrowing the gap: 

We are not seeing as many dominant teams anymore in college football as we did throughout the last decade. Texas and Ohio State look like they may be the cream of the crop, but overall we are seeing many highly ranked teams struggle. While a lot of fans have been outraged with the NIL rules and Transfer rules, there is no doubt that it has made the competitive environment even tighter. 

Heisman Race

WR/CB Travis Hunter | Colorado

Travis Hunter at wide receiver has 46 catches for 561 yards and six touchdowns. That's the fifth-most receiving yards and third-most receptions and receiving touchdowns. Hunter's on pace for 110 catches, over 1,300 yards and 14 receiving touchdowns Defensively, Hunter has three pass breakups, two interceptions and a forced fumble. When Charles Woodson — the last defensive player to win — won the Heisman, he had seven interceptions. Hunter projects for just under five interceptions on the season, but he's blowing Woodson's receiving stats from his Heisman season out of the water.

RB Ashton Jeanty | Boise State

Do you remember the Heisman race of 1997? I don't. I wasn't born yet. However, history shows that there was a spectacular offensive skill position athlete who was setting FBS records for touchdowns at a non-power conference school that was up for the award against a two-way superstar and two quarterbacks.

That athlete was Randy Moss at Marshall, and you might be getting deja vu from Ashton Jeanty this year at Boise State. Jeanty has 845 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on 82 carries — an average of 10.3 yards a pop — in four games. That puts the Boise State superstar on pace for 2,535 rushing yards and 39 rushing touchdowns on the season. That's close to Barry Sanders' 1988 Heisman-winning season when he set FBS records with 2,628 rushing yards and beyond his 37 touchdowns. If Jeanty continues to dominate, he should be in the Heisman conversation like Randy Moss was in 1997.

Yet, unlike Moss, Jeanty will benefit from a College Football Playoff push thanks to the 12-team expansion this year. As long as Boise State keeps winning — which we know will require Jeanty to put up numbers — Jeanty's Heisman case remains alive.

QB Cam Ward | Miami (FL)

Last night's comeback against CAL was a huge moment in Ward’s Heisman campaign. They were down 38-10 at one point late in the 2nd half and stormed back for victory. In Cam Ward's first year at Miami, "The U" is back to its winning ways with a championship-contending feeling not felt since the early 2000s. Ward has the second-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the country after five games. He's the reason Miami is undefeated, and as long as it stays that way, he'll remain in contention for the Heisman.

However, while Ward is likely to put up the passing numbers down the stretch, he may struggle to have the marquee games that can lead to a Heisman moment with a regular season in a weakened ACC. That could be what keeps this year's Heisman race close.

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