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Kalshi has Darline Graham winning the South Carolina GOP primary with a near 70% chance versus Ralph Norman (33%) Tuesday.
There is one important caveat in that the last three primaries, for whatever reason, have been way off. Those were specifically Democratic primaries (Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida).
South Carolina Republicans are voting to select their U.S. Senate nominee following the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, with appointed Sen. Graham facing a nine-candidate field that included Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman.
The top two finishers advanced to a runoff on August 25.
They included Graham and Ralph Norman, the latter of whom is more of a household name in the state.
Graham stumbled in a debate over an elementary question about foreign policy, a signature issue of her late brother. It was a high-profile misstep a week before she faces a runoff election in her bid to hold onto the South Carolina seat to which she was appointed last month.
Graham, a political novice, was asked whether the U.S. has a national security interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea — a longstanding contention of both Democratic and Republican administrations. She struggled to answer before admitting, “National security is not my thing.”
“I’m not that informed on national security,” she added.
This episode went viral on social media.
Her rival in next week’s runoff for the GOP nomination, Rep. Ralph Norman, suggested the answer showed Graham was unqualified for the role.
