Public Liking Rangers in Game Two as Moneyline Drops From -165 to -145

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Action on the sides was fairly balanced early on for Game 2 of the World Series but not so for the total. 


We see lopsided action on the OVER at around 75%.  That number climbed from 8.5 to 9 at BetOnline, Bookmaker, Circa, DraftKings, Bovada and pretty much everywhere else. 

Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona.  He's 2-1 in the post season with an ERA of 3.29.  In 30 appearances against him, the Rangers have had just four hits and two RBIs (.133).  Kelly is more than capable of pitching into the 7th inning.  Kelly came through in a big way for the Diamondbacks on Monday afternoon, firing five innings of one-run baseball in a victory over the Phillies in Game 6 of the NLCS.  

Rangers Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 in the post season and perhaps due for a bad outing.  Diamondbacks hitters have gone up against Montgomery 59 times, resulting in 18 hits and 5 RBIs. Gabriel Moreno is 4-for-7 against him. Montgomery earned a victory out of the Rangers’ bullpen in Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday night, hurling 2 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against the Astros. Jordan Montgomery pitched decently in a no-decision against the Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS before that, allowing just two runs in 5 1/3 innings.

The line has gone from -165 to -145 at Bovada, now back up to -150.  The Rangers were seeing 55% of the action at that number compared to under 50% prior.  BetOnline had the number at -160 and dropped to -140, where it sat at 12:09 pm.  Circa went from -151 to -140.  The Diamondbacks should have won Game 1.  They were 3-1 during the regular season against Texas.  

The AcePerHead internal action data showed around 65% of the moneyline action coming Texas' way at -146, leading us to question why the price is coming down. 

We do like Arizona in this situation.

- Don Shapiro,

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