Best Screenplay Odds – Oscars 2009

A number of online gambling websites are offering the basic cookie cutter Oscar odds but Sportsinteraction.com seems to feature one of the best betting menus with odds on what many consider to be the more obscure categories like "Best Costume Design", "Best Foreign Language Film" and "Best Adapted Screenplay".

For "Best Adapted Screenplay", SIA listed Slumdog Millionaire as the favorite at -400 odds. 

"Probably no surprise here considering all the talk this year is of Slumdog Millionaire sweeping the Oscars," explains Payton O'Brien of Gambling911.com.  "I think the more exciting category is going to be ‘Best Original Screenplay'."

While Milk is the near even odds favorite in this category, the competition is much stiffer.

Aside from the "Best Supporting Actress" category, "Best Original Screenplay" may offer one of the best payouts.

Guy Lodge of Incontention.com explains why:

"I think it was some smart person on Nat Rogers' most recent podcast who remarked that if you really want to get a picture of what was going on cinematically in any given year, you'd be better off bypassing Oscar's Best Picture category and heading straight for the Best Original Screenplay nominees - a category that has a far higher tolerance for eccentricity, controversy and the occasional foreign tongue than any other.

"Case in point: 2002. When the top categories were splintered between the respectable but less-than-relevant likes of "Chicago" and "The Pianist," Original Screenplay afforded voters the luxury of choosing between Pedro Almodovar, Todd Haynes and Alfonso Cuaron. Two years later, the category gave recognition to the otherwise shamefully sidelined "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," just as, a decade earlier, "Pulp Fiction" fans sought refuge there from a merciless shower of Gump. As I've said before, from "Citizen Kane" to "The Crying Game," Best Original Screenplay tends to be the connoisseur's favourite Oscar category."

His pick is the animated feature, Wall-E., listed at +500 odds at Sportsinteraction.com, with the payout potential being $500 for every $100 bet.

"Wall E. represents a tempting compromise for the Academy: a chance to reward an unashamedly populist title that nonetheless has immense critical cache and, in the shape of Andrew Stanton, something of an auteur identity.

Wordless as its first half may be, one can't fail to notice how intricate and disciplined the visual storytelling is, nor can one deny the film's major achievement in building a credible and empathetic relationship between two characters as limited in vocal and gestural capacity as WALL-E and EVE. As a feat of writing, I would say it's a far more challenging and ambitious achievement than the "Milk," and, given the film's impressive nomination haul across the board, I suspect many Academy members may well respect that.

"The anti-animation bias of certain Academy is still a concern, but I can't help feeling that the barrier has to be broken at some point. We'll never know just how close "WALL-E" got to a Best Picture nomination, but I suspect it was Pixar's nearest miss to date. Meanwhile, this represents the fifth showing in this category for a Pixar production - could a win here for "WALL-E" count as a cumulative recognition of the company's astonishing creative rise in the past thirteen years? Finally, in a year that will likely see "Waltz With Bashir" become a history-making winner in Foreign Language category, the Academy may just see the significance in making 2008 a banner year for a long-ghettoised artform."

Here were your Best Screenplay Odds - Oscars 2009, courtesy of Sportsinteraction.com

Original adaptation:

Milk -152 (pays slightly less than even odds)

In Bruges +225 (pays $22.50 for every $10 bet)

Wall-E +500 (pays $50 for every $10 bet)

Happy Go Lucky +1800 (pays $180 for every $10 bet)

Frozen River +2800 (pays $280 for every $10 bet)

Adapted Screenplay:

Slumdog Millionaire -400 (requires $40 risk to pay $10)

The Reader +600 (pays $60 for every $10 bet)

Curious Case of Benjamin Button +600 (pays $60 for every $10 bet)

Fox/Nixon +1200 (pays $120 for every $10 bet)

Doubt +2200 (pays $220 for every $10 bet)