Odds for the 2009 Oscars
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle considers the odds for the 2009 Oscar nominees announced on Thursday.
Slumdog Millionaire is a red hot favorite for Best Picture and is the movie everyone is talking about in the run-in to the Academy Awards themselves. It's interesting, actually, that a feel-good movie is the most talked about movie of the year - it's like a throwback to the thirties, with people going to theatres to watch Fred and Ginger dance in evening clothes before going back to Great Depression outside.
But we're not sociologists and we're not sentimentalists - we're bettors, and we're here to make some money. Therefore, I would advise players to eschew the Best Picture category on the basis that SportsInteraction.com . -250 on Slumdog is too short a price and the rest are too unlikely. If you really must have a bet then Benjamin Button is the value of the field at +350. Sooner bet on it than sit through it as far as I'm concerned, but what would I know about Art?
Best Director normally goes hand in hand with Best Picture, but the field is more even behind Slumdog's Danny Boyle, who is priced -250 with Sports Interaction. If someone feels like a flyer on this, perhaps a cautious tickle on Ron Howard at +700 with Sports Interaction is worth a try, not so much for Frost/Nixon as for being such a nice guy for all these years. The Oscars are a popularity contest after all.
Speaking of popularity contests, it's hard to see Mickey Rourke being beaten for Best Actor, and he is well worth a bet at -139 with SportsInteraction.com . Sean Penn is the nearest contender but which of those two would you rather go for a drink with? Of course, Lauren Bacall and Burt Reynolds would be able to give you an argument about popularity contests after they watched Juliette Binoche and Robin Williams go up to collect Oscars that had Bacall and Reynolds' names on them before the curtains rose a few years ago. But my money's going on Mickey Rourke in this one. He is Motorcycle Boy, after all.
Best Actress is a horse of a different colour. Kate Winslet is an even money favorite with Sports Interactionn and has been working the circuit hard, but right now I just can't see the headline "Winslet Wins for Portrayal of Sympathetic Concentration Camp Guard." Anne Hathaway is second favorite at +162 and she's been very, very brave after the unfortunate events of her personal life. That registers with people. Also, Hollywood loves portrayals of the drunk and chemically dependent - can't possibly imagine why. The thing is, does anybody really want to win the thing? After all, it hasn't done Nicole Kidman or Halle Berry much good, has it? Still, Hathaway is the bet here.
Heath Ledger can't be beaten for Best Supporting Actor, but Best Supporting Actress looks an interesting contest. Penelope Cruz, the second best looking woman in the Kingdom of Spain, is the favorite at -125 with Sports Interaction but the value in the field is Mickey Rourke's co-star in The Wrestler, Marisa Tomei. It's seventeen years since Tomei won before for My Cousin Vinny but, while she didn't quite go off the rails as Mickey Rourke did, Ms Tomei didn't have Julia Roberts' career either. Hollywood loves a survivor - Marisa Tomei to win Best Supporting Actress at +400 with Sports Interaction is the final pick for the 81st Academy Awards.
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Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com
