Why The Hurt Locker Might Not Win An Oscar

Oddsmakers this week instilled The Hurt Locker as the odds on favorite to win the 2010 Oscar for Best Picture after a few weeks of Avatar leading the pack.  betED.com had The Hurt Locker as a -120 favorite and Avatar paying even odds.  Either bet has a decent enough price to wager.

Oddsmakers believe that The Hurt Locker will win based on how the money is flowing in.  The film is getting more action than Avatar.

But there are some obstacles standing in the way of The Hurt Locker winning an Oscar.  The biggest obstacle of them all is Avatar, which is a technologically brilliant masterpiece of a film though many argue it lacks an authentic storyline and substance.  Still, it's the film everyone seems to want to win as far as the public opinion goes. 

Public opinion does not favor The Hurt Locker winning and this is supported by the film's poor box office showing.

Joe Morganstern of the Wall Street Journal believes there is good reason to believe The Hurt Locker could walk off with an Oscar for Best Picture however:

"The storyline never sags in The Hurt Locker, a stunning example of another classic genre, action suspense. In this film the connection to the audience depends, at least at first, on the primal question of whether bombs will or won't explode.

"But Kathryn Bigelow's tour de force is far more than a genre piece. It's a character study of remarkable complexity, a meditation on the nature of heroism, a consideration of the Iraq conflict that's neither antiwar nor pro, but cool, mature and incisive. And it's a showcase for elegant technique-rigorous direction, taut writing, flawless performances, masterful editing and cinematography.

"Despite its proudly independent roots, The Hurt Locker is a heartening throwback to the golden age of Hollywood, when studio films could aspire to such lean and disciplined excellence, and occasionally achieve it."

And then there is this observation by Morganstern, which opens up the possibility of another nominated film providing the upset in this category:

"The Hurt Locker has come on so strongly, for so long, that some see it as vulnerable to an outsider move. (I see that kind of seeing as a symptom of the attention deficit disorder that afflicts pop culture as a whole, though the perception could be self-fulfilling.) Actors, whose guild constitutes an important voting bloc, may turn out for Inglourious Basterds, which celebrates the very notion of acting with a collection of fine performances. They may also turn against Avatar, which represents a real threat to actors' livelihoods by blurring the line between live action and animation. What's more, Academy voters have often resisted popular films, so the stupendously popular Avatar might be perceived as too big not to fail in the best-picture category.

82nd Academy Awards: Which film will win the Best Picture Award?  Odds available at betED.com here

Up in the Air

+4000

Inglorious Basterds

+1200

Avatar

+100

Precious

+5000

The Hurt Locker

-120

Up

+5000

Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher