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Carrie Stroup with your 2010 Week 15 NFL predictions. As always we look at who the public is backing most heavily and go against those plays then we review some important trends that give a particular team a noteworthy advantage. Last week we pretty much split across the board. Let’s get started.
The Falcons and Cowboys were getting the most lopsided action. Atlanta was the most wagered on team and was getting just under 80 percent of the action. This game was getting heavy volume so Seattle was seeing more action than the Cowboys opponent, the Washington Redskins. Dallas was getting a whopping 90 percent of the betting action on the spread.
Our two picks based on this information are Seattle +7 and Washington +7.
The Ravens were actually the 3rd most wagered on team in the NFL this weekend but this game was getting such heavy volume, New Orleans was the 4th most bet on team. Neither of these will be picks.
Let’s now look at some great trends and how they get incorporated into my 2010 Week 15 NFL predictions.
One of the best picks based on past trends is Cleveland at +1. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Browns, meanwhile, are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are also 1-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Eegad!
Miami is a different team at home and – let’s just say, if this team was playing exclusively at home their record would be worse than the Bengals. To make matters worse, the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
As much as Buffalo was mocked early on in the season for its losses, 7 of their last 8 games have either been wins, losses by 3 or fewer points or overtime losses (of which there were three). I’m on Buffalo at +5 here. That’s the number you can get at Sportsbook.com. This is a team that has played a lot better than their 3-10 record would indicate the second part of this season.
Philadelphia is 5-1 against the spread versus New York Giants over the last 3 seasons and I don’t see anything changing here. Philadelphia +3.
Good luck everyone!
Carrie Stroup is the Senior Reporter for the Gambling911.com website.
