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2022 NFL Week 11 Plays, Underlays, Overlays and Comparables

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/17/2022

These are our favorite plays from best to worst in order (top to bottom):

Denver -2.5

Packers -2.5

Jets +4.5

Bears +3.5

Browns +9.5

Chargers +7

Colts +9

Lions +3.5

Under 3 (2.5)

Tennessee Titans +2.5 to +3 Green Bay Packers - This one we get a number of 0.95 favoring Green Bay.  That means we have a 1.5 to 2 point overlay.  Overlays have gone 6-2 for the favorites this season in the 2.5/3 line range.  Favorites have gone an incredible 24-8 in the 2.5/3 line range without going over the 3 so far this season.  Green Bay certainly matched the later criteria, however, we hit the 3.5 by Wednesday night.  As such, this one would no longer be factored in as part of our hot 2.5/3 trend.

Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 Denver Broncos - 2.97 Denver is our number.  This one is on the money.  Favorites are 24-8 in this line range (3/2.5 not going over the 3).  Lines on the money in this range are 12-2.  It should be noted that the Raiders have gone 5-0 in the last five games of this series.

Some comparables this season:

Houston +2.5 to +3 Chicago (home team favorite Chicago covers and wins by 3) 3.03 On the Money.

Indianapolis +2.5 Tennessee (home favorite Tenn covers and wins by 9 points) Tenn 2.01 On the Money.

New York Giants +2.5 to +3 Jacksonville (road dog Giants cover and win) Jacksonville 2.1 On the Money.

LA Rams +2.5 to +3 Tampa (home favorite Tampa covers with 3 point win, pushes for some) Tampa 3.28 On the Money.

Denver is one of our favorites at -2.5 this week.

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Above 3 (3.5)

LA Rams +3 to +4.5 to +3.5 New Orleans - This line was still fluid at the time of publication.  We get New Orleans 0.16, indicating an overlay of 3 to 4.5 points.

It's interesting to note that there has not been any wrong teams favored up to this point with the line 3/3.5.

Here is the full breakdown:

Underlay 3-2
Overlay 4-6
On The Money 1-4
Wrong Team Favored NA

New York Jets +4.5 to +3.5 New England Patriots - We have a number of 5.2, indicating a line that started off on the money and has since dropped to around a 1 point underlay.  Lines on the money in this line range have favored the dog a bit going 1-4 for the favorite.

Here are two comparable games this season:

Minnesota -3.5 to -3 Washington (home dog covers and pushes with Minnesota 3 point win) Minn 3.18 On the Money.

LA Chargers -3.5 to -3 Atlanta (home dog Atlanta covers with LA 3 point win) LA 4.86 Underlay of 1.5 to 2. 

The Jets certainly look attractive here to be sure.

Chicago Bears +3 to +3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons - We get a number of 2.81 Atlanta, thus the line appears to be accurate.   As noted above, lines on the money in this line range have favored the dog a bit going 1-4 for the favorite.

Comparables include:

Buffalo -3.5 / -3 Baltimore (home dog covers or pushes with Bills 3 point win)  Buffalo 2.37 On the Money.

Minnesota -3.5 to -3 Washington (home dog covers and pushes with Minnesota 3 point win) Minn 3.18 On the Money.

Chicago would have a slight edge here.

Detroit Lions +3.5 to +3 New York Giants - We get a number of 4.99.  A 1.5 to 2 point underlay is seen here. 

Comparables include:

Jets +3 to +3.5 Pittsburgh (road team dog Jets cover and win by 4 points) Pittsburgh 4.91 Underlay of 1.5 to 2

LA Chargers -3.5 to -3 Atlanta (home dog Atlanta covers with LA 3 point win) LA 4.86 Underlay of 1.5 to 2

Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 to -3.5 Pittsburgh Steelers - Our number is 4.37 Bengals.  This places our number smack dab in the middle of where this line has moved to and from. 

Above and Below 3 (2.5/3.5)

Washington Commanders -2.5 to -3.5 to -3 Houston Texans - We get a number of 2.71.  This one is on the money for sure. 

Below 7 (6.5)

Kansas City Chiefs -7 to -5.5 LA Chargers - Our number is KC 3.17.  That's an overlay of 2.5 to 4.

A good comparable is: Kansas City -6.5 to -5.5 Indianapolis (home dog Indianapolis covers and wins by 3 points) Kansas 2.9 Overlay of 3 to 3.5

Above 7 (7.5)

Cleveland Browns +9.5 to +7.5 Buffalo Bills - We get 11.44, which suggests a 2 to 4 point underlay.  

The dog has gone 8-2 in games where the line has moved between 7 to 7.5 so far this season.

There are two comparables:

Houston +8.5 to +7 Indianapolis (road dog Houston covers with a tie) Indianapolis 11.04 - Underlay of 2.5 to 4

Carolina +8 to +7 Cincinnati (home favorite Cincinnati covers and wins by a lot) Cincinnati 10.34 Underlay 2.5 to 3.5

Cleveland gets the nod here +9.5

San Francisco 49ers -7 to 8.5 Arizona Cardinals - Our number comes in at San Francisco 1.55, suggesting a 5.5 to 6.5 overlay. 

Above and Below 7 (6.5/7.5)

Philadelphia Eagles -9 to -6.5 Indianapolis Colts - We actually get a number of Philadephia 2.2.  That suggests a 4 to 7 point overlay. 

Somewhat of a comparable game would be:

Seattle +7 to +4.5 LA Chargers (road dog Seattle covers and wins) LA 10.93 Underlay of 4 to 6.5 points.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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