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Carrie Stroup here with your Arkansas vs. South Alabama betting line. Sportsbook.ag Line: Arkansas State
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (2-3) at SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS (3-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arkansas State -6
Two teams trying to remain unbeaten in the Sun Belt will collide on Tuesday night when Arkansas State visits South Alabama.
Both schools opened conference play on Oct. 3 with victories, as the Red Wolves knocked off 22-point underdog Idaho 49-35 while the Jaguars pulled off the 24-18 upset at 6-point favorite Troy. Arkansas State is 2-3 ATS this season, and has been trounced in both road games, 55-6 at USC and 37-7 at Toledo. South Alabama (3-2 ATS) was pummeled in its last home game on Sept. 26, falling 63-13 to NC State, but opened the season with a 33-7 win over Gardner-Webb in Mobile, AL.
These schools are meeting for the fourth straight season with the Red Wolves winning all three previous contests (2-1 ATS), including 45-10 last year and 17-16 when the Jaguars hosted in 2013. Both teams are staring at some negative trends for Tuesday, as Arkansas State is 0-13 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards in its previous game since 1992, and 21-39 ATS off a home win in that same timeframe. But South Alabama is 6-14 ATS at home under head coach Joey Jones, including 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.
After missing three games, the Red Wolves expect to get starting QB Fredi Knighten (groin) back for Tuesday. The only new injury for either team is Knighten's teammate OL Daniel Keith, who is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Arkansas State's offense has been strong this season with 30.4 PPG on 394 total YPG, and these numbers have increased to 42.0 PPG and 451 total YPG over the past three contests. The team has done this through great balance with 193 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and 202 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA.
Senior RB Michael Gordon is coming off a monster performance against Idaho where he ran for 221 yards on 26 carries (8.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. Gordon was also effective in last year's romp over South Alabama with 77 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and a touchdown.
Senior QB Fredi Knighten was the best player on the field in that 2014 meeting with 266 total yards (186 passing, 80 rushing) and 3 total TD. His return will be key for this team moving forward, as his statistics this year are so bad (19-of-46, 41% completions, 183 yds, 4.0 YPA, 2 TD, 3 INT) because they were against Power 5 opponents USC and Missouri. Another senior, WR JD McKissic, is the third-most important part of this offense with a team-high 27 catches, including at least four receptions in each game.
Defensively, this unit has surrendered 32.2 PPG on 391 total YPG, and these numbers have ballooned to 46.0 PPG and 493 total YPG on the road. The biggest deficiency has been stopping the run (170 YPG on 4.8 YPC), as the Wolves' 221 passing YPG allowed is on just 53% completions and 5.7 YPA. They have also done a great job of forcing mistakes with 10 turnovers in the past four contests, including three last week. This trend could continue against a Jaguars team with 11 giveaways, including 3 TO in three different games so far.
South Alabama turnovers have limited the offense to 22.6 PPG and 375 total YPG this year. Time of possession is a subpar 27:59 average with the ground game churning out only 138 YPG on 3.8 YPC. But sophomore RB Xavier Johnson has been outstanding versus non-Power 5 opponents with 46 carries for 354 yards (7.7 YPC) and 4 TD in three such games. Johnson carried the football just seven times for 28 yards in last year's loss at Arkansas State.
QB Cody Clements (52% completions, 1,131 pass yds, 7 TD, 6 INT) has eclipsed 200 passing yards in four straight contests but the senior has not completed more than 58% of his passes in any game so far. He has relied mostly on two targets, with junior TE Gerald Everett (23 rec, 350 yds, 5 TD) and junior WR Josh Magee (13 rec, 326 yds) combining for 57% of the South Alabama receiving yards this season. No other receiver even has 100 yards in 2015.
On defense, the Jaguars have allowed 32.6 PPG on 405 total YPG, and have been especially weak in stopping the run (205 YPG on 5.1 YPC). Defending the pass hasn't been much better though with opponents completing 58% of their throws for 200 YPG (6.7 YPA). But after forcing only two turnovers in a three-game stretch, South Alabama recorded three takeaways in their upset at Troy last week.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
