Bears-Packers Spread Has Green Bay a 10-Point Home Favorite

The Bears/Packers spread was listed at -10 in favor of Green Bay, but the Bears still have something to play for – home field advantage.  Why the double digit spread?  Barry Daniels of Don Best offers this exclusive betting preview to Gambling911.com readers. 

A victory in Sunday’s NFC North matchup against the Chicago Bears will give the Green Bay Packers a wild card spot in the playoffs. The Bears have already clinched the division title, but are still vying for a first-round bye.

Those two facts don’t seem to be lost on most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports, as the Packers have been installed as hefty 10-point home favorites. The ‘total’ opened at 41 ½ points.

If the Packers are to grab the victory and garner a trip to postseason play, they must overcome the plethora of penalties that plagued them during their first meeting against the Bears.

That matchup occurred on Sept. 27 and resulted in the Bears registering a 20-17 victory as three-point home underdogs. The combined 37 points dipped below the 45 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash in the last five series meetings.

The Packers committed a franchise-record 18 penalties for 152 yards in that last-second Week 3 loss in Chicago. A touchdown on offense was wiped out by a holding call and two interceptions were nullified by flags. The Packers out-gained the Bears, 379-276, including 316-199 in passing yards.

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Fortunately, that fiasco served as a bit of a wake-up call in that category for the Packers. They continued their more rule-compliant ways in Sunday’s 45-17 spanking of the Giants as three-point home favorites. The victory raised Green Bay’s home ledger to 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.

Green Bay was called for just three penalties for 31 yards against New York, the ninth time this season – and eighth time in 12 games since the first Chicago contest – that the Packers have been flagged three or fewer times in a game.

The nine games with three or fewer penalties this season matches the team’s best total since 1967, and it also surpasses the total of such games under Mike McCarthy in his first four seasons combined (seven). The Packers were among the five most-penalized teams each of the last three years, including the most-penalized squad last year.

They’re currently tied for fourth in fewest accepted penalties this season with 74, and rank third in least penalty yardage with 587.

The Bears clinched the NFC North title with Sunday’s 38-34 victory against the New York Jets. Chicago barely covered as 1 ½-point home favorites to lift its overall spread record to 8-6-1.

The combined 72 points soared above the 36-point closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to cash in each of Chicago’s last five games. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ is still 8-7 in Chicago’s first 15 contests.

Chicago is scoring an average of just 22.1 PPG, which ranks 18th in the league. But the Bears are allowing a meager 18.4 PPG, which ranks fourth.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Chicago tight end Desmond Clark (neck) and wide receiver Earl Bennett (ankle) as “questionable.” Green Bay linebackers Frank Zombo (knee) and Diyral Briggs (ankle) are also listed as “questionable.” Safety Atari Bigby is “doubtful” with a groin injury.

Several trends on this game can be uncovered by going to the Don Best Sports NFL page.

For example, Chicago has seen the ‘over’ go 8-0 in its last eight January games, but the club is just 2-6 ATS during that span. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last eight as an underdog.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-1 in their last six contests as a favorite. Green Bay is also a nifty 19-9 ATS in its last 28 outings against fellow NFC North foes and 4-1 ATS in its last five series meetings against the Bears.

Barry Daniels, Don Best Sports and Gambling911.com Special Contributor