Browns-Bills Spread November 20 Should Be Buffalo -11

Written by:
Tyrone Black
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Oddsmakers will need to rethink where the Bills should be among the teams most likely to win a Super Bowl this season.

Coming into Week 10, Buffalo still sat atop the odds at +350 despite having already suffered two losses (we still had an undefeated team in Philadelphia).  This placed Buffalo in a dead heat tie with both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.  New York did not play this week.  Miami beat Cleveland at home.

Anticipated Line vs. Browns

Next up for the Bills is a Cleveland Browns team that just got crushed in Miami.

Gambling911.com came up with a line of 11.39 for this game using the Week 10 Sagarin ratings.  We anticipate a drop in the Bills number, but also in the Browns.  As such this line of -11 to 11.5 should hold up.


Predicting Sunday's Outcome vs. Minnesota: How Did it Go?

From a numbers game, the line on the Vikings-Bills matchup aggressively moved from +7.5 to +3.  We got a number of 9.41.  That indicated an underlay of 2 to 6.5 points.  In other words, the power ratings suggested Buffalo should have easily covered the spread.

But adjustments will be necessary after Minnesota's shock win against Buffalo.

Comparables within this line range (covering a pretty significant stretch of numbers) coming into this game, we looked at:

The Big Line Drop:

Seattle +6.5 to +3.5 Detroit (road team dog Seattle covers and wins by 3 points) Detroit 3.35 Overlay of 3 to On the Money.

The Big Underlay:

Las Vegas +3.5 / +4 LA Chargers (home favorite Chargers covers with 5 point win) 7.21 Underlay of 3.5 to 4,

Washington +3 to +3.5 Dallas (home favorite Dallas covers and wins by a lot) Dallas 9.62 Underlay 6 to 6.5 points.

The big line drop in that Seahawks vs. Lions game did go in favor of the underdogs (Seattle).

Takeaways from the Vikings-Bills Game

Buffalo still played well.  This game did go into overtime.  They will come into Week 11 with a 6-3 record.  Gambling911.com did not anticipate a major dropoff in their Sagarin power rating, though we believe they will no longer be the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Josh Allen's turnovers didn't help Sunday.

Patrick Peterson intercepted Josh Allen with 1:12 left in overtime to seal the deal.  Minnesota walked away with the 33-30 victory.

"It's on me," Allen said after the crushing loss. "Can't have that.''

Too be fair, Allen wasn't playing at 100 percent.  He's still nursing an elbow injury and did not take to the field for warm-ups. Allen suffered a sprained UCL ligament in the loss to the New York Jets on Nov. 6.

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

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