College Football Betting Previews – Championship Games 2011
Carrie Stroup here with a bunch of College Football betting previews, which include a few big Championship games for 2011 to determine which schools end up in which Bowl games. All betting odds courtesy of our good friends at Sportsbook.com, which is offering a whole bunch of prop bets and up to $250 in FREE CASH depending on what you open your wagering account with. Use promo code CARRIE STROUP.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS (10-2) vs. LSU TIGERS (12-0)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: LSU -14 & 46.5
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -12 & 46
No. 14 Georgia and No. 1 LSU meet in the SEC Championship for the third time in nine years when they lock horns in the Georgia Dome on Saturday afternoon.
Each team notched a blowout win in the previous conference title matchups. Currently, Georgia is riding a 10-game win streak on the arm of QB Aaron Murray (school-record 32 TD, 10 INT), while 12-0 LSU is getting the job done on defense, ranking second in the nation in scoring defense (10.6 PPG) and leading all FBS teams with a +19 turnover margin for the season. Bulldogs star RB Isaiah Crowell (ankle) didn’t play last week, but says he’ll be able to go on Saturday. UGa has rushed for 1,030 yards in the past five weeks (206 YPG), but the Tigers have allowed just 86 rushing YPG on 2.6 YPC for the season. LSU prefers to move the football on the ground, but the QB combo of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson have combined for 8.3 YPA, 19 passing TD and 4 INT. The Tigers have outscored their opponents 38 to 11 this year, including 35 to 8 in the SEC. And they have played arguably the nation’s toughest schedule, beating seven ranked teams.
Ten straight wins playing in the SEC is impressive, but Georgia did not face the conference’s three best teams -- LSU, Alabama or Arkansas. The Bulldogs began the season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina, both ranked in the top dozen teams in the country, and have only beaten two ranked teams (Auburn and Georgia Tech). Among the seven ranked teams the Tigers have taken down this year have been three teams ranked No. 2 or No. 3 at the time they played them (Oregon, Alabama and Arkansas).
Both schools boast excellent defenses, as LSU ranks second in the country in total defense (248 YPG), while Georgia places fifth in yardage (271 YPG) and 10th in points (17.8 PPG). But the Tigers have the best secondary in the country, allowing only six touchdown passes all season, and holding SEC passing leader Tyler Wilson to 207 yards last week. Both teams have benefited greatly from turnovers, as LSU has forced 27 turnovers and Georgia has 29 takeaways, tied for 13th at a healthy +10 turnover margin.
The Tigers have a greater advantage in rushing the football, especially with Georgia’s top running back Crowell not 100 percent. LSU is averaging 216 rushing YPG (18th in nation) while Georgia has 181 rushing YPG (36th in FBS). The Bayou Bengals have three players that run the football regularly with Michael Ford (721 rushing yards), Spencer Ware (687 rushing yards) and Alfred Blue (445 rushing yards). LSU also has superior special teams play with Tyrann Mathieu, whose 13.7-yard punt return average is seventh-best in the nation. He had a 92-yard punt return TD against Arkansas and also forced two fumbles as a cornerback. Georgia ranks a dismal 100th in the nation in net punting and 66th in punt returns (8.0 avg).
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (10-2) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (10-2)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Wisconsin -9.5 & 55
Opening Line & Total: Badgers -9.5 & 53
The Big Ten inaugural Championship Game in Indianapolis pits two teams who have already played a classic this year on Oct. 22, as Michigan State beat Wisconsin on a final-play Hail Mary.
Both schools are rolling up the points lately. Michigan State has averaged 38.5 PPG during its four-game win streak, while Wisconsin has 44.3 PPG during its four consecutive victories. When these teams met earlier this year, MSU blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead, but won the game on a 44-yard deflected TD pass on the game’s final play. Badgers QB Russell Wilson threw 2 INT that night, but he’s only tossed one other interception the entire season. Montee Ball (1,622 yards, 6.5 YPC, nation-leading 29 TD) gives the Badgers a decided advantage in the running game and Wisconsin’s pass defense has been incredibly stingy, allowing 122 passing YPG during its four-game run.
Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins outplayed Wilson in the October meeting, throwing for 290 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT, giving him 760 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT in three career games versus Wisconsin. Cousins is also playing great since passing for a woeful 86 yards on 27 attempts in his team’s last loss to Nebraska. In the four games since, Cousins is 71-for-108 (66%) for 261 passing YPG, 10 TD and 1 INT. He has led the offense to 424 total YPG during the win streak, with much help from No. 1 WR B.J. Cunningham (1,125 rec. yds, 9 TD). Cunningham has three 100-yard receiving games and 6 TD during the four-game surge, and is just 88 receiving yards away from becoming the school’s all-time leader. Sophomore RB Le’Veon Bell has also been great during the win streak, rushing for 362 yards (6.0 YPC) and four scores.
Speaking of rushing, Ball ran for 115 yards and a touchdown in the October meeting with MSU, but the Spartans were without star DE William Gholston, who was suspended for that game. Michigan State currently ranks 11th in the nation in rushing defense (103 YPG), so it won’t be smooth sailing for Ball, despite his Big Ten-leading 135 rushing YPG. Wilson, the nation’s leader in passing efficiency, is also facing a top-notch passing defense as MSU ranks eighth in both passing yards allowed (164 YPG) and sacks (3.1 per game). But the Badgers defense is just as good as Michigan State’s, ranking fourth in FBS in scoring defense (15.2 PPG) and seventh in total defense (278 YPG).
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (11-1) vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (9-3)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Virginia Tech -7 & 53
Opening Line & Total: Hokies –7 & 52.5
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet for the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte, NC on Saturday night when red-hot No. 5 Virginia Tech faces slumping No. 20 Clemson.
Much has changed since Clemson spanked Virginia Tech 23-3 in Blacksburg on October 1. The Hokies haven’t lost since that meeting, averaging 31.3 PPG during a seven-game win streak. The Tigers are 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in the past four games, getting outscored by an average of 33-19. Clemson’s ground game is averaging a meager 3.0 YPC and the team has committed 12 turnovers during this four-game slump. Meanwhile, Tech QB Logan Thomas has 14 TD and 2 INT since the Clemson loss, and RB David Wilson has 956 yards (137 YPG) on 6.5 YPC during the seven-game surge.
Despite the recent slump, Clemson also has the ability to put up points with QB Tajh Boyd under center. Boyd leads the ACC in total offense (291 YPG) and has thrown for 3+ TD in half of his games this season, totaling 28 TD and 10 INT. But he’s not as effective with freshman WR Sammy Watkins at less than 100 percent. Watkins, who has 1,073 receiving yards and 10 TD on the season, has been bothered by a shoulder injury and has just 101 receiving yards in his team’s past three games. He is expected to start on Saturday. But the Hokies did a nice job of limiting Clemson’s two stars in the last meeting as Boyd completed just 13-of-32 passes for 204 yards (6.4 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT, while Watkins had three catches for 38 yards and three carries for four yards. Tech currently ranks seventh in the nation in points allowed (15.5 PPG), eighth in sacks (3.1 per game) and 12th in yardage (302 YPG). Last week, the Hokies forced four Virginia turnovers and held the Cavaliers to 30 rushing yards on 26 carries.
Unlike Tech, the Tigers have a suspect defense that has surrendered 35.5 PPG over the past six contests. This doesn’t bode well facing a Hokies team that just hung 38 points on UVa last week. Although Thomas struggled to move the football through the air on Clemson (15-of-27, 125 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT), Wilson had no problems gaining yards on the ground. He rumbled for 127 yards on just 20 carries (6.2 YPC), adding 21 more through the air against the Tigers.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (10-2) at HOUSTON COUGARS (12-0)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Houston -14 & 72
Opening Line & Total: Cougars -12.5 & 71
No. 6 Houston looks to cap off a perfect regular season when it hosts No. 24 Southern Miss in the Conference USA title game on Saturday afternoon.
For Houston to secure a BCS Bowl, it not only has to beat Southern Miss, but it might have to win by a wide margin. Fortunately for the Cougars, winning big has been pretty easy. They’ve covered seven straight spreads that have averaged 21 points, winning these games by an average score of 58 to 17. Southern Miss has three straight ATS defeats, losing outright to the same UAB team that Houston beat 56-13 just 12 days prior. Houston is 6-0 ATS at home and Case Keenum’s season stats are simply astounding: 4,726 passing yards, 73% completions, 10.1 YPA, 43 TD and 3 INT.
Southern Miss can also score in bunches, tallying 36.9 PPG this season behind its strong quarterback Austin Davis (24 TD, 10 INT). The senior had a monster game against Houston last year, totaling 404 yards (293 passing, 111 rushing) and six touchdowns (4 rushing, 2 passing) in a 59-41 win. Davis has done a nice job keeping his composure in road games this year. After throwing three picks in the road opener at Marshall, he has totaled 12 TD and 2 INT in his past five road games. The Eagles have also run the ball effectively this year (208 YPG, 24th in nation), with six players tallying at least 285 yards on the ground. Freshman Jamal Woodyard leads the team with 653 rushing yards (6.4 YPC), but Memphis held him to 13 yards on nine carries last week. Houston ranks 77th in the nation in rushing defense (169 YPG), but has lowered that number to 122 YPG (3.2 YPC) in the past four games. The Cougars are allowing just 13.3 PPG and 300 total YPG in this four-game span, so the Eagles have their work cut out for them.
The home team has won the past six meetings in this series and Houston is 6-1 ATS at home against Southern Miss since 1996. The Cougars lead the nation in both points (52.7 PPG) and yards (613 YPG) and Keenum leads the country with 394 passing YPG. He had quite a game the only time he has faced the Eagles in his career. In that 2009 meeting, Keenum led Houston to a 50-43 win, completing 44-of-55 passes (80%) for 559 yards, 5 TD and just 1 INT. His favorite receiver this year has been senior Patrick Edwards, who has 30 catches for 745 yards (149 YPG) and 12 TD over his past five games Despite the gaudy offensive numbers, the Cougars have done a great job protecting the football, as they have a mere five turnovers in eight conference games this season. This low giveaway rate will be tough to maintain though against an Eagles defense with six straight contests of forcing at least two turnovers.
TEXAS LONGHORNS (7-4) at BAYLOR BEARS (8-3)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Baylor -3 & 64
Opening Line & Total: Bears -2.5 & 63.5
No. 22 Texas looks to retain its mastery in Waco when it visits No. 17 Baylor on Saturday afternoon.
Texas has thoroughly dominated Baylor in Waco, winning the past six trips to Floyd Casey Stadium by an unbelievable combined score of 307 to 34. Although the Bears ran for 360 yards (4.6 YPC) against Texas Tech last week, the Longhorns rumbled for 439 yards (8.1 YPC) versus the Red Raiders on Nov. 5. Texas has allowed a mere 322 rushing yards (64 YPG) in its past five games, so the Bears will need to throw early and often. Although Robert Griffin III is expected to start at QB for Baylor, he could be feeling the headaches after suffering a concussion last week. Longhorns coach Mack Brown knows how to attack bad defensive teams, going 6-0 ATS against opponents allowing 34+ PPG since his arrival in Austin.
The Longhorns top RB Malcolm Brown (turf toe) isn’t yet 100 percent, based on his 72 yards on 28 carries (2.6 YPC) in the past two weeks. Injuries to Brown and Fozzy Whittaker (knee, out for season) has made an excellent rushing offense (880 yards in two-game stretch) very ordinary over the past three weeks (118 rush YPG, 3.3 YPC). But Baylor ranks 102nd in the nation in rushing defense (198 YPG), so Texas will still look to pound the football. The UT passing offense has been subpar all year (179 YPG, 96th in nation), especially lately with six straight games of netting less than 200 passing yards (148 pass YPG average in this span). The Horns have also hurt themselves with turnovers, giving the football away 15 times in the past seven games. Considering Baylor’s defense has 3+ takeaways in three straight games, this is definitely an area of concern for Texas. But the Bears overall defense has been horrible this year, ranking among the seven worst teams in the nation in both total defense (470 YPG) and scoring defense (36.7 PPG). In the past six games, these numbers have risen to a jaw-dropping 552 YPG and 43.8 PPG allowed.
The key to this matchup will be the health of Griffin III, who suffered a concussion last week after his head bounced off the turf at Cowboys Stadium. He’s expected to start, but it’s unknown if he’ll be experiencing lingering headaches. Griffin III is having an outstanding junior season, completing 73% of his passes for 3,678 yards (334 YPG), 34 TD and just 5 INT. He has led the Bears to 577 total YPG (2nd in nation) and 43.1 PPG (6th in FBS). Baylor’s ground game has also been top-notch, ranking 17th in the country with 217 YPG. Terrance Ganaway is the Big 12’s No. 2 rusher, averaging 109 YPG on 5.8 YPC with 14 TD. But Ganaway has been inconsistent this year, posting four games of 60 or fewer rushing yards, and Texas’ run-stop unit is stuffing everybody right now. Baylor is also concerned with turnovers, with 12 giveaways in the past five games and seeing Texas tally four takeaways in last week’s win over Texas A&M.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS (9-2) at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-1)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Oklahoma State -3 (-120) & 72
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -3 & 73.5
Bedlam resumes in the state of Oklahoma as the No. 10 OU Sooners visit the No. 3 OSU Cowboys to determine this year’s Big 12 champion.
This is a similar scenario to last year when OU entered Stillwater as a small underdog and won 47-41, marking its eighth straight win (7-1 ATS) in the series. But OSU is the better team this year, especially with Sooners star WR Ryan Broyles and top RB Dominique Whaley out with injuries. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones has 28 touchdowns this year, but has not thrown a TD pass in two games without Broyles on the field. The Cowboys had 536 yards at Iowa State in their last game Nov. 18, but lost in double overtime because of five turnovers. But that shouldn’t be an issue on Saturday because Oklahoma has only forced one total turnover in three Big 12 road games. In five home tilts, Oklahoma State is averaging 55.8 PPG and 607 YPG, and head coach Mike Gundy is 35-14 ATS (71.4%) when his OSU team is favored.
This game features two of the four 4,000-yard passers in FBS (Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden), but both QBs threw 3 INT in last year’s 47-41 Oklahoma upset win in Stillwater. Jones is missing his two best weapons (WR Ryan Broyles and RB Dominique Whaley) but he will get back WR Jaz Reynolds (692 receiving yards, 5 TD) who was suspended for last week’s game. After throwing at least one touchdown pass in 24 straight games, spanning three seasons, Jones has not found the end zone in two consecutive games minus Broyles. But not all is dire for the Sooners, as they had three players each rush for 80+ yards in last week’s win over Iowa State. Trey Franks had 88 yards on two carries, Roy Finch had 83 on 15 attempts (5.5 YPC) and Brandon Williams ran for 80 with just 11 carries (7.3 YPC). Freshman Blake Bell is stealing all the touchdowns, scoring eight times on just 25 total carries in the past three weeks. The Sooners have averaged a whopping 44.2 PPG on the road this year and the defense ranks third in the nation in sacks with 3.4 per game.
Oklahoma State loves to play on the fast surface, piling up an incredible 57.7 PPG in seven games on turf this year. The Cowboys have also gotten great quarterbacking play from their 28-year-old senior Brandon Weeden. He has connected on 103 passes to WR Justin Blackmon, totaling 1,241 yards and 15 touchdowns. OSU’s running game has also been clicking lately, averaging 204 rushing YPG over its past six contests. The defense, on the other hand, has not been so good. Oklahoma State ranks 107th out of 120 FBS teams in total defense (454 YPG) and 102nd in passing defense (267 YPG).
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
