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Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers odds were either San Diego -3 or -3 ½ depending on where you happened to be looking. Sportsbetting.com was offering the line at Chargers -3 heading into Monday afternoon. The line opened at -4 and most of the betting action was relatively balanced heading into this game after a weekend where sports bettors got pummeled by heavily backed teams losing or failing to cover (i.e. Minnesota).
The home team has won 7 of the last 10 in this series. San Diego has won 6 of the last 10. The Chargers last 4 wins against Denver were by double digit points. They have won 5 of their last 6 in this series. The Chargers have an definitive edge when it comes to past head-to-head matchup results.
Some important things to consider before betting on this game courtesy of Scouts.com:
Denver knows Rivers will throw the ball more than the Chargers will run it, especially on third down, and that makes San Diego's offense fairly predictable. That's good news for a Denver defense that is the best in the league at getting to the quarterback.
Denver is at the top of the league in red zone defense (only four TDs allowed in nine trips), while San Diego is near the bottom of the league in red zone offense (only six TDs in 17 trips). The Broncos are not equipped to get into a high-scoring game so they need to force the Chargers to kick field goals in the red zone instead of touchdowns.
The Chargers probably will bring that type of inside pressure to force Broncos Quarterback Kyle Orton to throw more than he wants to if the run game struggles, or at least to flush him out of the pocket.
This has become a pass-heavy offense, and the commitment to the run seems to be nonexistent. They have run the ball only 80 times, averaging 2.7 yards per attempt. They have too many third-and-long situations, and that puts pressure on Rivers to be in predictable passing situations. That is not good news when you're facing a good Denver pass rush that knows you're going to throw the ball.
Right now, the Chargers are last in the NFL in rushing and they have become a one-dimensional Rivers pass offense. Defenses can sit back and play pass and coverage schemes without a lot of fear regarding the run game, and that means Rivers does not get a lot of one-on-one perimeter matchups. Tomlinson does not look healthy or explosive, and Sproles is more of a situational back.
Here are some major Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Odds betting trends to consider before betting this game.
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Chargers are 21-8-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC West.
Chargers are 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
Gambling911.com believes that unless Denver comes to this game sleep walking, they should be able to win it despite past head-to-head matchup results suggesting otherwise. Current head-to-head analysis suggests the Broncos have the edge in this one.
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
