Duke vs. FSU Point Spread at Florida State -29.5
Carrie Stroup here with your Duke vs. FSU point spread, which was sitting at Florida State -29.5 but don’t be fooled by this huge number as we fully anticipate this to be a competitive matchup. You can claim your FREE $100 bet at Sportsbook.com and wager on this game LIVE.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -29.5 & 63.5
Opening Line & Total: Seminoles -30 & 62.5
Now the No. 1 team in the nation, Florida State will look to finish its regular season undefeated with a win in Saturday's ACC Championship game against an upstart No. 20 Duke team that has its first 10-win season ever.
Both teams have been incredible bets this season, each at 10-2 ATS, though they have taken different routes getting there. The Seminoles have been favored in every single contest while the Blue Devils has been an underdog in half of their games, going 5-1 ATS in those contests, including four straight SU wins in the underdog role. They have now covered seven in a row, while the Seminoles have five straight ATS wins. The question is if Duke will be able to do anything on either side of the ball against Florida State, which leads the nation in scoring defense (11.0 PPG) and ranks second in FBS in scoring offense with 53.7 PPG. Duke is 3-15 ATS (17%) since 1992 against top-notch passing defenses (5.75 YPA or less) in non-home games, but since David Cutcliffe took over the program, the Blue Devils are 16-6 ATS (73%) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. However, even with the monster spread, Duke will still be hard-pressed to keep this game close, as the Seminoles have dispatched their three ranked foes this season—Maryland, Clemson and Miami—by a combined 127 points! FSU has also won all 18 meetings with the Blue Devils by an average score of 50 to 16, scoring at least 40 points in 16 of those games. In the two most recent meetings, the 'Noles prevailed 41-16 in Durham in 2011, and 48-7 at home last year despite losing four fumbles.
The Blue Devils have an interesting situation at quarterback with Anthony Boone (1,695 pass yards, 66.2% completions, 10 TD, 9 INT) as the regular passer, but he splits the snaps with Brandon Connette (1,210 pass yards, 61.8% completions, 13 TD, 6 INT). Both of the team's losses came while Boone was injured, while Connette is a tremendous runner, rushing for 329 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Boone is less of a threat with his legs with 192 yards and 4 TD on the ground. He was also dreadful in Tallahassee in relief last year, going 3-for-15 for 37 yards (2.5 YPA). Their No. 1 receiving option is the dangerous junior WR Jamison Crowder (1,131 rec. yards, 7 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving games this year and has caught two touchdown passes in each of the past two games. He’s also a threat to return punts for scores. On the ground, RBs Jela Duncan (546 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 3 TD) and Josh Snead (530 rush yards, 6.4 YPC) have been the two top threats. Duncan rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries (3.5 YPC) with the lone Duke touchdown versus the 'Noles last year. The Blue Devils defense yields 23.0 PPG (37th in FBS), with one outlier when they gave up 58 points in a loss to Pittsburgh. They also allow 395 total YPG, comprised of 225 passing YPG and 170 rushing YPG.
The Florida State offense is the Jameis Winston show, as the freshman signal caller has completed 68.8% of his passes for an incredible 35 TD and 8 INT. He’s thrown for 3,490 yards (11.0 YPA) and with the big leads he puts up, he often doesn’t even play for the entire game. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, and has tossed 9 TD and just 1 INT in his past three games. Three of his receivers have at least 800 yards through the air: WRs Rashad Greene (914 rec. yards, 9 TD), Kenny Shaw (855 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Kelvin Benjamin (838 rec. yards, 12 TD). Greene and Benjamin each caught a long TD pass in last year's rout of Duke, as Greene scored from 71 yards out while Benjamin caught a 35-yard touchdown. TE Nick O’Leary is also a big part of the offense with 509 receiving yards and 7 TD. And if teams prepare too heavily against the pass, the running back trio of Devonta Freeman (852 rush yards, 5.9 YPC, 12 TD), Karlos Williams (650 rush yards, 8.2 YPC, 10 TD) and James Wilder Jr. (517 yards, 7.1 YPC, 8 TD) can all take advantage on the ground. Both Freeman and Wilder ran all over the Blue Devils last year, combining for 174 yards on 25 carries (7.0 YPC) and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Duke may have trouble getting its ground game going against this rush defense that yields 3.2 YPC, while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 52.2% of their passes for 5.1 yards per attempt.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
