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The Kansas City Chiefs odds to win the 2011 AFC West were listed at +230 or rounding off to around 2/1. Their odds to win the 2012 Super Bowl were at 50/1.
This was one of a handful of teams that outperformed initial forecasts by going 10-6 on the season and winning the division. They enjoyed the number 4 spot in the Playoffs.
One of the most important components to consider in regard to last year’s performance is that the Chiefs won all their home games except for one late season meeting against the Raiders that didn’t matter a whole lot.
That said, many pundits suggest the Chiefs played one of the softest schedules. Even so, bad teams would have been lucky to finish around .500 since there is a tendency to lose to other under .500 teams.
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There is talent on this team that cannot be denied. Kansas City averaged just over 164 yards per game, leading the NFL in rushing. Jamaal Charles averaged 6.4 yards per carry and rushed for 1,467 yards and five touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe's performance last season included 72 catches for 1,162 yards along with 15 touchdowns.
They also have a solid quarterback in Matt Cassel who completed nearly 61 percent of his attempts. He finished with 27 touchdowns to 7 interceptions.
When it comes to the defense, this may be Kansas City’s downfall. They appeared to have an edge at home but the Chiefs aren’t likely to match up to the elite teams on the road (i.e. the Patriots and Steelers). Kansas City won’t be playing under the radar either as they did last season.
As far as the schedule goes, the law of physics suggests they’ll lose at least one game at home and we’ll say that will be against the Steelers during Week 12. But they also face the Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers at home. Playing its safe, we can see the Chiefs losing two games at home in 2011.
On the road, they’ll have a tough time against teams like the Jets, Patriots, Colts and even the Lions. With numbers like they had last year, Kansas City can win a few of these. Between the Bears, Colts, Lions and Raiders, the Chiefs should be able to pull off at least one win and they should have no problem beating Denver during the final week if that game matters, and it might not should KC be out of the Playoffs picture.
It’s a tough call but the Chiefs look like a 9-7 team this season. Just the prospect of having to overcome San Diego twice, the Colts, the Packers, New England, the Jets and Pittsburgh makes it difficult to imagine an OVER 10 win season unless Kansas City vastly improves.
The good news for sports bettors, oddsmakers have the OVER/UNDER regular season win total at 8 with a line of +125 on the OVER and that’s some very good value in our opinion.
Futures Betting Value Index:
Kansas City to win the AFC West 2/1 – Poor
Kansas City to win the 2012 Super Bowl 50/1 – Poor
Kansas City to win OVER 8 regular season games +125 – Very Good
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
