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The 3rd down conversion betting prop for Super Bowl 57 had the total set at Over 11½ Conversions -145 and the Under at -115.
Kansas City had the best third down conversion percentages, just below the Bills, at 48.86%. The Eagles had the 4th best at 46.61%.
It's interesting to know that NFL teams overall have a 38.9% chance of converting an average third down.
Football Perspective offered an interesting observation on what successful 3rd down conversions mean for the outcome of a game.
Teams that were favored by 1 to 5.5 points won 58.7% of their games.
Teams that were favored by 6 to 8 points won 73.6% of their games.
Teams that were favored by more than 8 points won 83.4% of their games.
But let’s say you know that the favorite would lose the third down battle. How does that change things?
Teams that were favored by 1 to 5.5 points but were worse on third downs won only 43.4% of their games.
Teams that were favored by 6 to 8 points but were worse on third downs won only 54.2% of their games.
Teams that were favored by more than 8 points but were worse on third downs won 68.2% of their games.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
