New Orleans Saints 2009 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Perhaps the most heavily favored among the 2009 regular season win total odds is the New Orleans Saints going OVER 8 ½ games.  The folks from Sportsbook.com have assigned -170 odds of this happening and +140 that New Orleans wins fewer than 8 ½ games during the 2009 regular season. 

And it's not just regular season win total odds we should be looking at here.  The talk heading into this season is of the Saints potentially making it to the Super Bowl where they would currently pay out $2000 for every $100 bet.  You'll want to lock these odds in now.

Let's take a look at the Saints chances.

Team Positives:

The Saints had the top ranked offense last year but one of the league's worst defenses.  That changed during the off season with a revamping of the defense and letting go of the defensive coordinator.  And just think:  The Saints went 8-8 last year with such a poor defense.  Think of the possibilities here.  We know the oddsmakers are. 

Quarterback Situation - Drew Brees is a Super Bowl caliber quarterback and a solid leader.  We at Gambling911.com foresee no issue with him unless of calls he succumbs to an injury. 

Weaker Division - Looking at the 2009 regular season win total odds for other teams in this division we find that the folks at Sportsbook.com don't have the same high hopes for Carolina they did last year, making the Panthers a -125 favorite to win UNDER 8 ½ games.   Tampa Bay is an even bigger favorite (-160) to win UNDER 6 ½ games.  That leaves the Atlanta Falcons who are a favorite to win more than 8 ½ games at -135.  Last year, the Saints went 2-4 against division opponents.  We see them going at least 3-3 this season. 

Soft Schedule - Here is where we here at Gambling911.com see the New Orleans Saints after each week:

Week 1 - Host Detroit.  If they lose against the Lions, we might have to write them off completely.  1-0.

Week 2 - In theory they should be tested in Philadelphia and, at this stage of the game, we have to give the nod to the Eagles.  1-1.

Week 3 - They should be able to beat Buffalo on the road.  2-1.

Week 4 - Hosting the Jets.  Everything being relevant, the Saints should be New York at home.  3-1

Week 5 - Bye

Week 6 - New York Giants - Because the Giants are so good and the Saints have some proving to do, we're going to give this one to the Giants for the time being.  3-2.

Week 7 - At Miami - It's a toss up.  But let's be conservative and say Miami wins at home.  3-3.  After all, we are trying to determine the regular season wins Over/Under likelihood. 

Week 8 - Atlanta at home.  We'll give New Orleans all the home games against division rivals.  4-3.

Week 9 - Carolina at home.  Same as Atlanta.  5-3.

Week 10 - At St. Louis.  The Saints play great in a dome and should be able to take care of the Rams.  6-3.

Week 11 - Tampa Bay.  This one can go either way, but let's be consistent and give this to the home division team, Tampa Bay, who they lost to last year on the road. 6-4.

Week 12 - New England.  This will be tough.  We gotta give this to the Patriots.  Sorry Saints fans.  6-5.

Week 13 - At Washington - We'll go out on a limb and say that the Saints will be the better team here despite playing on the road and give them the win.  Hopefully it won't be cold though.   7-5.

Week 14 - At Atlanta - For argument's sake we will have the Saints losing all their division road games.  7-6.

Week 15 - Dallas - This should not be the same formidable Cowboys team.  That said, New Orleans should be able to handle them at home.  8-6.

Week 16 - Tampa Bay - Should beat them at home.  9-6.

Week 17 - Will Carolina really want to play during the final week?  We say because this will be a fight between Atlanta and New Orleans, the Saints could walk off with a victory here and a 10-6 record, good enough to land them in the post season. 

Washington on the road in December and Carolina playing the final week, potentially with nothing to play for, allow for a little wiggle room with the OVER 8 ½.  If the Saints beat either of these teams they should go OVER 8 ½ regular season wins.  And that is what we at Gambling911.com would be betting, even with the high price tag.

In the end though, we really believe the Saints have what is needed to beat the most solid of teams on their schedule, even on the road. 

The Negatives:

We don't see a whole lot of negatives since there have only been improvements during the off season and it just makes sense that the Saints will improve over their 8-8 record from last season.   The problem is that our conservative week-by-week forecast (assuming the Saints do not become an absolute power house in 2009) suggests that this team may be hovering around the .500 mark as late as Week 15.

Likewise, if Carolina is still a strong team in the division, that changes the scheme of things.  Dallas proving us wrong makes matters even worse for the Saints.  Outside of their road game in DC, the Saints should avoid the cold during the regular season.  The post season might be a different story.

New Orleans Saints 2009 Regular Season Win Total Odds were available at Sportsbook.com

You all want to look closely at those Super Bowl odds. 

Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com