NFL Spreads – Week 3 2012: Bucs vs. Cowboys, Eagles vs. Cardinals, More

Carrie Stroup here with your NFL spreads for some of the most bet on games of Week 3 2012 including the Bucs vs. Cowboys and Eagles vs. Cardinals games.  All of these games can be wagered on at Sportsbook.com here.  Be sure to claim up to $250 in FREE CASH when joining by using bonus code CARRIE STROUP.  Mobile wagering is available.  Be sure to check out my video below on how to join.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (1-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -8.5 & 46

Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -7 & 45.5

The Cowboys look to get back on track Sunday when they host a Buccaneers team they have dominated over the years.

Dallas is 12-3 SU all-time against Tampa Bay, including four straight victories by an average margin of 15.3 PPG. The Cowboys offense looked excellent against the Giants in their opener (433 yards) before getting shut down in Seattle in Week 2 (296 yards). But QB Tony Romo could take advantage against a Tampa defense that allowed Eli Manning to throw for 510 yards in last week’s 41-34 loss. The Bucs strongly prefer a clock-killing, run-first attack. It didn’t work against the Giants in Week 2 (79 yards on 22 rushes), but the Cowboys struggled to stop the Seahawks’ ground game last week (182 yards on 41 carries) and also allowed 82 rushing yards to a very weak Giants running game in the opener. Expect Dallas’ offense to play much better than when it laid an egg last week against Seattle. Poor special teams play and ill-timed drops by the receivers, mainly TE Jason Witten, made the outcome of the game much worse that it should have been. The Bucs will be overmatched in this one, and when they give up big yardage, it spells doom. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS when it allows 400 to 450 total yards over the past three seasons. The average score in those games was Tampa Bay 15.3, Opponent 38.0.

Bucs QB Josh Freeman didn’t do much in last year’s 31-16 home loss to Dallas, completing 17-of-27 passes for 148 yards (5.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. His touchdown came in the third quarter when his team was trailing 31-7. Freeman was actually the leading rusher in last year’s meeting with 37 carries, as LeGarrette Blount was the only other ball carrier, gaining a mere 21 yards on nine carries. However, this year’s ground game has been paced by workhorse rookie Doug Martin, who has 44 of his team’s 58 rushing attempts, gaining 161 yards (3.7 YPC) and one touchdown. The passing game has relied heavily on Vincent Jackson, who has received 20 of the 52 pass attempts this season. Mike Williams ranks second on the team in targets -- with eight -- scoring twice on those limited throws his way. Defensively, the Bucs were torched last week for 604 total yards, but they allowed only 301 yards in their season-opening win over Carolina. The rushing defense has been stout in 2012 though, holding two opponents to a combined 104 rushing yards on 38 carries (2.7 YPC). The Bucs have also forced five turnovers already during the young season.

Romo’s career numbers against the Buccaneers are nothing short of amazing. In three games, he has completed 61-of-86 passes (71%) for 908 yards, 11 TD and zero interceptions. Romo has done a wonderful job of keeping all his receivers happy, as four players have between 12 and 15 targets this year. RB DeMarco Murray has caught all six of his targets, and has been strong rushing the football with 175 yards on 5.5 YPC. Although he’s been bothered by a wrist injury, he will start on Sunday. Defensively, the Cowboys depth could be a bit on the thin side. S Gerald Sensabaugh (calf) is out, DT Kenyon Coleman (knee) is doubtful, and four others are questionable -- NT Jay Ratliff (ankle), S Matt Johnson (hamstring), DE Marcus Spears (ankle) and S Barry Church (thigh). During Dallas’ four-game series win streak, the defense has held the Bucs to 13.8 PPG and 278 total YPG. Last year, Tampa Bay gained 190 total yards and held the football for just 22:01.

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Added Games:  

Houston at Denver (+2) (-2) Bet Now
Atlanta at San Diego (+3) (-3) Bet Now

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -3 (-115) & 42

Opening Line & Total: Eagles -4 & 44

Two undefeated birds fly into one another on Sunday afternoon when the Eagles visit the Cardinals.

Philadelphia has turned it over nine times, but is 2-0 thanks to a high-powered offense, a very good defense and some timely playmaking. Arizona is coming off an upset in New England, beating the Pats despite just 245 yards of offense thanks to an improved D (four sacks of Tom Brady) and strong special teams (including a blocked punt). The Cards came to Philly last November and upset the then red-hot Eagles behind some John Skelton heroics. Skelton (ankle) will likely miss this game though as former Philly QB Kevin Kolb expects to start under center again. Arizona also beat up Michael Vick last year, sacking him twice, intercepting two passes and holding him to 128 passing yards. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Arizona’s win against a Patriots team that had won 24 of 25 regular-season home games was that it had none of that fluky anatomy-of-an-upset kind of stuff like a huge turnover differential in favor of the underdog. The Patriots won the turnover battle, possessed the ball for longer than Arizona did and even benefitted from three field goals of more than 45 yards, yet the Cardinals still came out on top. One of the keys to Arizona having won nine of its past 11 games is the ability of its defensive line to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, which is something they should be able to do with relative ease against an Eagles offensive line that was already without five-time Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters (he ruptured his Achilles tendon during the offseason) and on Sunday lost C Jason Kelce to a torn knee ligament. Peters’ replacement, King Dunlap, left Sunday’s game with a hamstring strain, and won’t play in Week 3. He was replaced by Demetress Bell, who wasn’t even active for the prior week’s game against the Browns.

Vick has already had an eventful season, leading his team to a pair of one-point wins with touchdowns in the final two minutes of regulation. Vick has thrown for more than 300 yards in both games, but has committed seven turnovers, including an NFL-high six interceptions. Vick also had trouble protecting the football in last year’s 21-17 loss to Arizona, as he threw for just 128 yards on 34 attempts (3.8 YPA), 0 TD and 2 INT. Considering how well Philadelphia ran the football in that loss to the Cardinals (166 yards on 24 carries, 6.9 YPC), it would be best served to let Vick and LeSean McCoy try to win this game on the ground, even with a beat up O-line. Vick will be without his top WR in Jeremy Maclin, who re-injured his hip last game while throwing a block. DeSean Jackson is another injured wideout (hamstring), but he will likely play on Sunday. Look for WR Jason Avant (6 rec, 60 yards this year) to assume a bigger role in the offense, and for TE Brent Celek to continue to add to his team-high 19 targets. The Eagles defense looks pretty much intact, and it has been disruptive in two games, forcing six turnovers and allowing just 268 total YPG.

Kolb will be facing his former team for the first time, and looks to improve upon a subpar game in New England when he completed 15-of-27 passes for 140 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Star WR Larry Fitzgerald caught just one pass for four yards last week. The ground game has also been terrible with just 74 rushing YPG (5^th-fewest in NFL). The two main running backs have both been atrocious as Beanie Wells has 58 yards on 21 carries (2.8 YPC) while Ryan Williams is even worse with 18 carries for 22 yards (1.2 YPC). The defense surrendered 387 total yards to the high-powered Patriots offense, but did not allow a touchdown until less than three minutes to play. Arizona does have a few noteworthy injuries in addition to Skelton, as TE Todd Heap (knee), G Adam Snyder (elbow), S Adrian Wilson (ankle) and S Rashad Johnson (hamstring) are all questionable for Sunday, with Wilson having the best chance of starting amongst the four players.

ATLANTA FALCONS (2-0) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Diego -3 (-115) & 47.5

Opening Line & Total: Chargers -3 (-115) & 47.5

A pair of unbeaten teams square off on Sunday afternoon when the Chargers try to beat the Falcons for the first time since 1988.

San Diego is 2-0 despite a rash of injuries. They torched the Titans last week despite being without TE Antonio Gates (ribs), RB Ryan Mathews (collarbone) and LT Jared Gaither (back). There’s a good chance Mathews and Gates will be back for this game. The Falcons will present the first major test for San Diego’s suspect secondary though, as WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White will present a far tougher challenge than Oakland’s and Tennessee’s injury-ravaged receiving groups did. The Falcons have fared very well against the AFC in recent years, going 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS against AFC opponents since 2008. Atlanta has won five straight meetings in this series, but is just 3-2 ATS during this streak. The Falcons have been very good following a relatively low-scoring game with a more explosive offense the next time out. Since Mike Smith became the team’s head coach five seasons ago, the Falcons are 21-10 ATS (68%) after playing Under the total. Smith has also prepared his teams nicely on a shortened week, going 32-20 ATS (62%) when playing with six or fewer days of rest.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been on the mark with a league-best 117.6 QB rating. He has completed 70.1% of his passes for 518 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT in the two victories. Ryan’s top three receivers all have 16+ catches, with WR Roddy White the team leader in yards (189) while WR Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez have each scored two touchdowns. Ryan last faced San Diego in 2008 when he threw for 207 yards and 2 TD in a 22-16 road win. Atlanta’s success through the air in 2012 has made its once-formidable ground game rather ordinary. RB Michael Turner is averaging a pathetic 2.6 yards per carry, gaining just 74 yards on 28 attempts. Turner was arrested for DUI after the Monday night win over Denver, but should not face any discipline from the league as a first-time offender. Other than Ryan (4.9 YPC), the rest of Atlanta’s team is averaging a collective 2.5 yards per carry with 107 yards on 42 attempts. Defensively, the run-stop unit has been less than stellar, allowing 135 rushing YPG (25^th in NFL), but was much better against Denver (4.4 YPC) than against Kansas City (4.6 YPC) in Week 1. The secondary is still adjusting to starting CB Brent Grimes on IR (Achilles), but this team continues to make big plays, forcing seven turnovers and not committing a single one so far this season.

Despite not having his two best offensive weapons in Week 2, San Diego QB Philip Rivers still shined with three touchdown passes, all to backup TE Dante Rosario. Rivers has been locked in over the first two games of 2012, completing 74% of his passes for 515 yards, 4 TD and just 1 INT. Although TE Antonio Gates was a late scratch for Week 2 because of bruised ribs, he should be able to start on Sunday. The ground game has certainly missed Mathews, who broke his collarbone in the preseason. But all signs point to him being on the field Sunday to help his Chargers team that has rushed for a paltry 3.1 yards per carry. However, on the other side of the football, San Diego’s run-stop unit has been impenetrable in the first two weeks of the season, allowing a mere 83 yards on 30 carries (2.8 YPC). The pass defense improved from Week 1 when the Raiders threw for 276 yards on 6.0 YPA. Despite trailing big most of the game, Tennessee managed just 174 passing yards (5.8 YPA) last week in the 38-10 blowout.

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- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter