NFL Spreads – Week 3 2012: Texans vs. Broncos, Patriots vs. Cardinals

Carrie Stroup here with your NFL spreads for Week 3 of the 2012 regular season with a look at the Texans vs. Broncos and Patriots vs. Cardinals.  All of these games can be wagered on at Sportsbook.com here.  Be sure to claim up to $250 in FREE CASH when joining by using bonus code CARRIE STROUP.  Mobile wagering is available.  Be sure to check out my video below on how to join.

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-0) at DENVER BRONCOS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Houston -2 & 44.5

Opening Line & Total: Pick ‘em & 46

After a pair of easy wins, the Texans face their biggest challenge of the season when they visit the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

Houston is staking its claim to be the AFC’s best defense, but it will be in a chess match with Peyton Manning. While Manning’s arm strength isn’t back (leading to 3 INT last Monday in Atlanta), he’s still capable of manipulating defenses with the best of them. Denver nearly came back to beat the Falcons despite four early turnovers. Denver’s run defense will be in for a challenge against Houston’s elite running game. They dominated

a good Jacksonville D for 216 rushing yards last week, on the road. Houston is averaging 39 minutes of possession per game, a potential advantage in keeping their defense fresh in Denver’s thin air. The Texans are for real, allowing a franchise-low 117 yards against Jacksonville last week. Over the past two seasons, they are a whopping 12-3 ATS (80%) against AFC opponents, and 13-3 ATS (81%) in games played on a grass field. Also, home teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a September road loss after closing the previous season with 4+ losses in its final five games are 20-46 ATS (30%) since 1983.

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The Texans have outscored their first two opponents 57-17. Last week, they used a two-man rushing attack to pummel Jacksonville, as Arian Foster had 110 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries, and Ben Tate rushed for 74 yards and two scores on just 12 carries (6.2 YPC). Houston also had a solid performance from QB Matt Schaub who completed 26-of-35 throws for 195 yards and helped his team rack up a whopping 43:17 time of possession. Six different players each had at least three catches. In the teams’ most recent matchup in Denver two years ago Schaub had a big day with 310 passing yards (70% completions), 1 TD and 1 INT. TE Owen Daniels had eight catches for 73 yards and a touchdown that day, and was targeted a team-high nine times in last week’s win in Jacksonville. Houston’s defense has been outstanding, posting league-best numbers in scoring defense (8.5 PPG), total defense (196 YPG) and passing defense (124 YPG). The Texans have forced five turnovers but have not committed a single one on offense. Two injuries that could affect this great defense are LB Brooks Reed (hip) and DE Antonio Smith (ankles), who are both listed as questionable. The good news is that LB Connor Barwin (elbow) has been upgraded to probable.

Manning has always loved facing Houston, winning 16 of 18 career meetings and completing 70.4% of his passes for 5,122 yards (285 YPG), 42 TD and just 8 INT. However, he has not faced this Texans defense since Wade Phillips took over and transformed them into one of the best stop-units in the NFL. Manning had his problems with turnovers last week as all three picks came in the game’s first eight minutes, but still finished 24-of-37 (65%) for 241 yards and 1 TD. He and Demaryius Thomas were on the same page all night as Thomas caught eight passes for 78 yards and 1 TD. Denver’s running game also improved greatly from Week 1, tallying 24 more yards on the same amount of carries. Willis McGahee ran for 113 yards and two scores against Atlanta. Defensively, the Broncos have been excellent in stopping the run so far, allowing a total of 142 yards on 54 carries (2.6 YPC). The passing defense has also been strong, yielding just 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Denver could be without LB Von Miller, who is questionable with a hip injury, and two members of the secondary are also labeled as questionable, CB Chris Harris (ankle) and S Quinton Carter (knee).

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Houston at Denver (+2) (-2)

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Atlanta at San Diego (+3) (-3)

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -3 (even) & 49.5

Opening Line & Total: Ravens -3 (even) & 49

The Ravens seek payback Sunday night in an AFC Championship Game rematch with the Patriots, who have won all six regular-season meetings since Baltimore relocated from Cleveland.

The Pats are coming off their worst game in recent memory, looking completely out of sorts against Arizona after losing TE Aaron Hernandez to a high ankle sprain. Hernandez won’t play in this one, as he’s out 4-to-6 weeks. The Ravens are playing with a chip on their shoulder after they felt they were robbed in Philly last week, and because of their AFC title game loss in New England. The Ravens have lost their past two SU to the Patriots (both in Foxboro), but got an ATS win and a push. They’re 3-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2007. Baltimore’s no-huddle was a hit in its opener at home against Cincy (44 points, 430 yards), but was less effective in Philly last week (23 points, 325 yards). The Ravens under John Harbaugh have tended to play well against good opponents at home and play well early in the season. Harbaugh’s Baltimore teams are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less, and they’re also 13-4 ATS in the first month of the season. The Ravens haven’t lost back-to-back games since 2009, winning 13 straight games following an SU defeat. Meanwhile, New England’s offensive line appears to be a unit that’s in relative shambles at the moment.

Patriots QB Tom Brady has certainly been flustered by this Ravens defense in his career, winning all four regular season meetings, but completing just 56% of his passes for 979 yards (245 YPG), 4 TD and 3 INT. He has also faced them twice in the postseason, completing 58% of his throws for 393 yards (5.0 YPA), 2 TD and 5 INT. Although Brady will probably throw the football 30-to-35 times, New England needs to establish the running game to leave town with a victory. The Patriots have outrushed the Ravens 223 to 215 in the past two wins, and with Stevan Ridley carrying the offense this year (196 rush yds, 5.0 YPC), they will look to chew up yards against this stout Baltimore defense. With Hernandez out, veteran TE Kellen Winslow was signed to take his spot on the roster. However, Hernandez’s targets will likely go to Wes Welker, who has been on the field much less this season than what he’s used to seeing. Welker had six catches for 53 yards in the 23-20 win in the AFC Championship in January. Despite an offense out of sync (5-for-15 on third downs last week), the Patriots defense has performed above expectations so far, ranking second in the NFL in total defense (265 total YPG) and fourth in scoring defense (16.5 PPG), while forcing four turnovers in two games.

The Ravens were denied a trip to the Super Bowl last year when Lee Evans dropped a TD pass in the closing seconds before Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying, 32-yard field goal at the end of regulation. QB Joe Flacco played pretty well in that heartbreaking loss, completing 22-of-36 passes for 306 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He’s also been strong during two regular-season losses to New England, completing 54-of-82 passes (66%) for 549 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT. Flacco is looking to bounce back from a subpar performance in Philly though, when he was 22-of-42 for 232 yards (5.5 YPA). Another player that has given the Patriots trouble is RB Ray Rice, who has 278 total yards over two regular-season meetings and 237 total yards and 2 TD in two postseason meetings. Defensively, Baltimore has done a great job turning New England over, forcing nine Patriots miscues in the past three meetings. They also forced four Eagles turnovers last week, but still allowed Philly to rack up 486 total yards, the most Baltimore has allowed in a loss since 1998.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter