NFL Week 16 2011 Lines
Carrie Stroup here with your NFL Week 16 2011 lines for some important Saturday games. You can bet all of these at Sportsbook.com and receive up to $250 in FREE CASH here.
NEW YORK GIANTS (7-7) at NEW YORK JETS (8-6)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Jets -3 (even) & 45.5
Opening Line & Total: NYJ -3 & 46
The league’s only in-town rivals are both struggling heading into this matchup of Giants and Jets at MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve.
Both teams were embarrassed in Week 15, with the Jets blown out by 26 in Philadelphia, and the Giants losing to the Redskins for a second time, dropping a 23-10 defeat. The Giants typically struggle in their home stadium when their passing game goes awry in December, and QB Eli Manning had 3 INT and no touchdowns in last week’s loss, in large part due to horrible performances from his receiving corps. If the wind is whipping, the Jets are better equipped to move the ball because of their superior running game and better underneath receivers.
These teams haven’t met since 2007, a 35-24 Giants win. This gives the G-Men four straight wins over the Jets, whose last win in this New York series came in 1993.
Neither quarterback has been reliable late in the season in their careers. Manning has a subpar 15-19 record with a poor 75.0 passer rating in December, while Jets QB Mark Sanchez is 5-5 with a horrendous 68.8 rating in the season’s final month. Although Manning (4,362 passing yards) is statistically superior this year, Sanchez (3,009 passing yards) has actually played better in his home stadium (88.0 rating; 15 TD, 7 INT) than Manning has (86.9 rating, 11 TD, 9 INT).
Neither team has run the football like they are capable of, but the Jets have rushed for 104 YPG, while the Giants sport the worst rushing offense in the league at 86 YPG. Both teams have had their share of injuries to running backs and offensive linemen, but both New York clubs are pretty healthy heading into this Week 16 matchup.
Both teams were done in by turnovers last week, which has been a common theme lately for the New Yorkers. Since the start of November, the Giants have 14 giveaways in seven games, and the Jets have turned the ball over 15 times in seven contests. However, the Jets have been better at forcing turnovers, racking up eight takeaways in the past three games, while the Giants have just four total takeaways in their past four contests.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-8) at DALLAS COWBOYS (8-6)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Dallas -1.5 & 50.5
Opening Line & Total: Cowboys -3 & 51
Even though they’re a longshot for the playoffs, the Eagles and their fans would love nothing more than to spoil the rival Cowboys’ season with another huge win in Dallas on Christmas Eve.
Back in Week 8 against Dallas, the Eagles played their best game of the season, rolling up 495 yards of offense and controlling the clock for 42:09 in a 34-7 blowout win. But the Cowboys have won three of four SU and three in a row ATS at home against Philly. The outcome of this game should come down to what QB Tony Romo can do against an Eagles pass defense that has played very well lately. Dallas has beat up on losing teams, going 7-2 SU, but is only 3-6 ATS in those games. The Cowboys are also 4-15 ATS (21%) as a favorite in the past two seasons.
The Eagles are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, as they trail the Cowboys by two games, with two games to play. Philly hosts Washington in Week 17, while the Cowboys visit the New York Giants in the season finale. When these teams met on Oct. 30, the Eagles dominated the ground game, out-rushing Dallas 239 to 85. LeSean McCoy rushed for 185 yards and 2 TD that game, running his career total to 392 rushing yards (6.5 YPC) in four lifetime meetings with the Cowboys. QB Michael Vick had a huge performance against the Jets last week, completing 15-of-22 passes for 274 yards (12.5 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT. He also ran for 32 yards and another score. Vick had his highest-rated game this season against Dallas, completing 21-of-28 passes for 279 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.
Speaking of quarterbacks playing well, Tony Romo has been tremendous in three December games, throwing for 869 yards (290 YPG), 8 TD and 0 INT. But he had his lowest passer rating of the year against Philly in Week 8, completing just 18-of-35 passes for 203 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. For his career against the Eagles, Romo is 6-5 with a pedestrian 78.7 passer rating (7.6 YPA, 182 passing YPG, 11 TD, 11 INT). But for Dallas to prevail, the running game needs to keep cranking out yards. After three straight sub-90-yard performances, the Cowboys have churned out 299 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) in the past two games. Felix Jones has 214 of these rushing yards (5.6 YPC) in his featured back role as rookie DeMarco Murray’s injury replacement.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-7) at DETROIT LIONS (9-5)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Detroit -2.5 & 52
Opening Line & Total: Lions -2.5 & 50.5
Two teams peaking at just the right time square off Saturday in Detroit when the Chargers visit the Lions.
San Diego is in the midst of its annual December surge, absolutely blowing away its past three opponents. The Chargers outscored the Jaguars, Bills and Ravens by a combined total of 109-38, and they’re now 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS over the past three regular seasons in December/January. A big reason has been the improved play of the o-line, which added much-needed LT Jared Gaither after he was bafflingly cut by Kansas City. San Diego should be able to counter the strength of the Lions’ defense, the front four.
San Diego’s improved offensive line has also allowed QB Philip Rivers and RB Ryan Mathews to thrive. Rivers has thrown 8 TD and 0 INT in his past four games with the added time in the pocket, and Mathews has rushed for 453 yards (5.6 YPC) in this same four-game span with the big holes being created by his linemen. With the way the Detroit defense has been playing, both Rivers and Mathews should have little trouble gaining yards. In the past five games, the Lions have surrendered 29.6 PPG and 419 total YPG (281 passing, 138 rushing). And they don’t figure to be able to capitalize on San Diego mistakes since the Chargers have only one turnover in their past four contests.
But the Lions should also be able to move up and down the field, especially through the air. With a banged-up secondary, the Chargers could have trouble matching up with Detroit’s explosive passing game. QB Matthew Stafford is averaging 296 YPG with a 33/14 TD/INT ratio, and has thrown for 618 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in his past two games. Detroit won both of these contests in dramatic fashion, edging the Vikings 34-28 and then completing a fourth-quarter comeback to overtake Oakland 28-27. The Lions have all but given up trying to run the football, gaining just 216 yards on 62 carries (3.5 YPC) over the past three weeks. San Diego’s run defense has been subpar though, allowing 126 rushing YPG this year (21st in NFL). The Chargers have given up just 185 rushing yards in the past two games, but opponents have gained 5.4 YPC in this span.
CHICAGO BEARS (7-7) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-1)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Green Bay -12 & 43.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -13 & 44
The Packers look to celebrate Christmas by simultaneously clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs while officially canceling postseason plans for rival Chicago.
Green Bay’s quest for a perfect season is over. The Packers struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers (four sacks) in Sunday’s loss at Kansas City, and with the injury problems on their offensive line, protection could be an issue again versus a good Bears pass rush. Not having top receiver Greg Jennings (knee) again will also be a major factor for Green Bay’s offense. Chicago should once again struggle to score no matter which subpar quarterback starts under center -- Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. In the past three games, the Bears offense has generated one touchdown and 20 total points. Hanie did play well in relief of Jay Cutler in last year’s NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, bringing the Bears close by throwing for 153 yards in the fourth quarter. They should also be able to rush the football well enough with Kahlil Bell and Marion Barber to keep this game close as well.
Chicago has totaled just 47 points during four straight defeats, but the running game hasn’t suffered much since Matt Forte injured his knee on Dec. 4. In two games since, the Bears have 291 rushing yards on 69 carries (4.2 YPC). Bell racked up 108 total yards and a touchdown last week, and Barber totaled 140 yards two weeks ago. Green Bay surrendered 139 rushing yards in K.C. last week, marking its sixth straight game of allowing at least 100 rushing yards. And the passing defense continues to be the second-worst in the NFL, surrendering 289 passing YPG this season.
Green Bay gained only 315 total yards (89 below its season average) in the 19-14 defeat to Kansas City last Sunday. But the Packers can take comfort in the fact that they’ve already beaten Chicago three times in the 2011 calendar year. This included a 27-17 victory in Week 3 when Aaron Rodgers and TE Jermichael Finley connected on three touchdown passes. Rodgers has usually played well against Chicago in his career. In seven regular-season meetings, he is 5-2 with a 69.4% completion rate, 242 passing YPG, 10 TD and 5 INT. He should continue this success against the league’s sixth-worst passing defense (254 YPG). The Packers have turned the ball over only four times in their past seven games, while the Bears have coughed it up 12 times in the past four weeks.
ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-3)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: New Orleans -7 (even) & 52.5
Opening Line & Total: Saints -7.5 & 53.5
The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.
These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons.
Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).
Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.<P>
Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
