NFL Week 18 Line Analyses, Overlays and Underlays
Jets vs. Dolphins - The Jets vs. Dolphins game had moved from New York +1 to +3.5 over the course of the week.
We get a number of Miami 4.41 for this game, indicating an underlay of between 1 and 3.5.
Underlays that move between the 3 (2.5 and 3.5) have not delivered a big enough sampling for us to notice any trends in either the NFL or college football. Underlays around the 3 (2.5/3 and 3.5/3 without crossing the 3 for either) have been especially favorable for the favorite however.
Miami only needs to win this game and the Patriots need to lose in Buffalo in order for the Dolphins to make the playoffs.
Browns vs. Steelers - While Pittsburgh will need a lot of help, they still have a shot at making the post season courtesy of their 8-8 record. They'll only make it if they win (or tie) this game and go 9-8 however.
In addition to a win, Pittsburgh also will need a loss or a tie by both the New England Patriots (to the Buffalo Bills) and the Miami Dolphins (to the New York Jets) to qualify for the postseason. Should the Steelers tie the Browns, they'd need losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins.
The line has gone +3 to +2.5 Cleveland. We get a number of Pittsburgh 1.49 for a small overlay of 1 to 1.5. In our season sampling of overlays with a spread of 2.5/3 the dog has gone 4-15 Against The Spread, therefore making Cleveland a solid play here.
Cowboys vs. Commanders - This game has some degree of meaning for the playoff-bound Cowboys in that they can achieve home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They'll need the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) to lose to the Giants. Dallas also needs a win.
The line has crossed the 7, peaking at 7.5 after starting the week at 4. We get a number of Cowboys 7.04. This one started as an underlay of 3 and was on the money by week's end. The dog has fared well within this line range as part of our very small sampling (3-0 Against The Spread).
Rams-Seahawks - The Seahawks (8-8) will play host to the Los Angeles Rams (5-11) on Sunday afternoon and need to win along with some help from the Green Bay Packers, who will need to lose to visiting Detroit -- or play to a tie -- in Sunday night's regular-season finale, to reach the postseason.
This one had moved to Rams +5.5 Saturday night at a few books but mostly remained at 6 or above (7). We get a number of Seattle 2.24. That's a 3.5 to 4.5 overlay and these have mostly been split this season in both the NFL and college football within this line range.
Lions-Packers - The Lions lost six of their first seven games. The Packers entered last month with a 4-8 record. Both teams are now 8-8, tied with Seattle for the final wild-card berth.
A win by the Seahawks in an earlier game will mean that Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention. Green Bay simply needs to win at home.
We get a number of Packers 4.51. The line was 4.5 to 5 Green Bay.
Odds to Win the NFC
Rot Odds to win NFC Conference Moneyline
161 Philadelphia Eagles +200
162 San Francisco 49ers +200
163 Dallas Cowboys +450
164 Minnesota Vikings +1400
165 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
167 Detroit Lions +6000
168 Seattle Seahawks +10000
170 Green Bay Packers +1100
171 New York Giants +3300
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
