Written by :
Don Shapiro
Published on :
Yesterday, we opted not to take the Miami Hurricanes despite top handicappers we following loving the Canes. Miami did manage to cover the 3 to 3.5 spread with a 4-point win. They were favored against Ole Miss.
In Friday night's Peach Bowl game we have a play on Oregon as the +3.5 dog. Most sportsbooks and Pay Per Head platforms have the line dropping from Indiana -4.5.
A Look at the Line Move
The line has dropped from Indiana -4.5 to -3.5.
Power Ratings Model
We have an overlay here as the line should be just Hoosiers -1.5. Overlays in the 3/3.5 region have performed quite well for the dog with our model sampling at the best percentage rate - 84%.
Consensus Cappers
Consensus cappers are missed but The Action Network offered their play on Oregon.
Oregon's defense showed up in a big way last week against Texas Tech. Shutting out the Red Raiders and forcing Tech into uncomfortable situations where they were never going to execute properly was critical for this defense.
Oregon ranks fifth nationally in yards per play allowed and third in yards per pass allowed. There's a path for the Ducks to stop the ground attack and force Indiana into throwing the ball effectively to move it here.
Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei have a combined 15.5 sacks between them. If Oregon can continue to get pressure and force negative plays, we could see this Indiana offense look a little bit different than it did during most of the regular season.
Oregon could benefit from how the game played out in the first meeting, a 30-20 home defeat back on Oct. 11.
Verdict
Gotta take Oregon at +3.5 here.
2026 Gambling911 Free Picks: Record 2-0
- Thursday January 8 - Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels - Lean Only - Hurricanes (W)
- Saturday January 3 - Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers - Pick: Seahawks -2.5. (WIN)
- Thursday January 1 - Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs - Pick: Ole Miss +6.5 (WIN)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
