PAC 10 Betting Preview for 2011 – Predictions (Part 1)
Gambling911.com is gearing up for College Football and we are proud to bring you the essential PAC 10 Betting Preview for the 2011 season courtesy of Sportsbook.com. This is Part 1 of 2 PAC 10 betting breakdowns. Part 2 of the PAC 10 picks can be found here.
ARIZONA WILDCATS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-6 (4-5 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 5-7-1
Over/Under: 7-5
Points Scored: 28.2 PPG
Points Allowed: 22.7 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 12/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 200/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Spread - Starters Returning: 5
The Wildcats are eager to get rid of that bad aftertaste of five straight losses to conclude the 2010 season. The good news is that the top two players of the nation’s 9th-best passing offense (308 YPG) are back in QB Nick Foles (3,191 pass yds, 20 TD, 10 INT) and WR Juron Criner (82 rec, 1,233 yds, 11 TD). The Wildcats are stacked at receiver, with Texas transfer Dan Buckner, David Douglas and David Roberts all strong players. The ground game will miss TB Nic Grigsby, but senior Keola Antolin (team-high 668 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 9 total TD) can handle more carries. Protecting Foles could be a problem, as Arizona lost its entire offensive line.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 5
On the defensive front, UA lost three DEs to the NFL Draft. But DT Justin Washington (6 sacks, 11.5 TFL) is back, as are all three starting linebackers, although the extent of LB Jake Fischer’s (7.5 TFL) knee injury in the spring game is not known. Two reliable safeties, Joseph Perkins and Anthony Wilcox are gone, but sophomore CB Shaquille Richardson (7 PD) has all the tools to be outstanding.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Northern Arizona
Thu, Sept. 8 – at Oklahoma State
Sat, Sept. 17 – Stanford
Sat, Sept. 24 – Oregon
Sat, Oct. 1 – at USC
Sat, Oct. 8 – at Oregon State
Thu, Oct. 20 – UCLA
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Washington
Sat, Nov. 5 – Utah
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Colorado
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Arizona State
Sat, Nov. 26 – Louisiana-Lafayette
Arizona has a brutal schedule, having to play both Stanford and Oregon – albeit at home – and not getting to face the Pac-12 North’s two weakest teams in Washington State and Cal. The ‘Cats also travel to Stillwater to take on a tough Oklahoma State team. Arizona should have a great offense led by Foles and Criner, but the defense has too many question marks to expect to stop all these powerful opponents.
Prediction: 6-6 record
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 8-3
Over/Under: 6-4
Points Scored: 32.3 PPG
Points Allowed: 25.0 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 4/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Single Back - Starters Returning: 9
The excitement level is high in Tempe as ASU returns 17 starters from last year’s club. One position with a new face is QB, after Steven Threet retired due to multiple concussions. That leaves junior QB Brock Osweiler (62-109, 797 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT) in charge of the passing offense that ranked 15th in the nation (286 YPG). Osweiler should benefit from an O-Line returning all its starters, hopeful to improve on 31 sacks allowed last year. He also has talented skill players in RBs Cameron Marshall (783 rush yds, 9 TD) and Deantre Lewis (539 rush yds, 5.9 YPC), as well as spring-ball standout WR Gerell Robinson (387 rec yds, 5 TD) and four other receivers who had between 25 and 36 receptions.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 8
The defense held six opponents to 20 points or less last year, and returns nearly everybody. The best front-seven players include DT Lawrence Guy (6 TFL), DE Junior Onyeali (6.5 sacks) and MLB Vontaze Burfict (90 tackles, 8.5 TFL). The secondary is a weak spot now that All-Pac 10 cornerback Omar Bolden (3 INT, 7 PD) tore his ACL in April.
2011 Schedule:
Thu, Sept. 1 – UC Davis
Fri, Sept. 9 – Missouri
Sat, Sept. 17 – at Illinois
Sat, Sept. 24 – USC
Sat, Oct. 1 – Oregon State
Sat, Oct. 8 – at Utah
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Oregon
Sat, Oct. 29 – Colorado
Sat, Nov. 5 – at UCLA
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Washington State
Sat, Nov. 19 – Arizona
Fri, Nov. 25 – California
Arizona State has a favorable Pac-12 schedule, with five home games and two away games versus the weaker teams in their conference (at UCLA, at Washington State). The Sun Devils also avoid Stanford and Washington, expected to be two of the top three teams in the Pac-12 North. With 17 starters returning, ASU certainly has the firepower on both sides of the ball to win the Pac-12 South ahead of favored Utah.
Prediction: 8-4 record
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-7 (3-6 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 5-6
Over/Under: 5-6
Points Scored: 25.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 22.6 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 20/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 200/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning:
Cal was a mystery last year with three 50-point games, but failing to surpass 14 points six times. Much of the drop-off was due to QB Kevin Riley tearing his MCL, but with Riley graduated, head coach Jeff Tedford has to find a replacement fast. Senior Brock Mansion (67-137, 646 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT) was terrible as Riley’s backup, leaving Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard as Cal’s top QB when spring practice ended. Two quality WRs return, in senior Marvin Jones (765 rec yds, 4 TD) and sophomore Keenan Allen (406 rec yds, 5 TD). RB Shane Vereen, who totaled 1,376 yards and 16 TD is also gone, leaving 5-foot-7 Isi Sofele (338 rush yds, 4.9 YPC) as the featured back. It’s doubtful that the 185-pound junior can handle the pounding from a full workload.
Defense:
Base 34 - Starters Returning: 5
The defense, which allowed 35+ points four times, but no more than 17 in the other eight games, lost ILB Mike Mohamed and DE Cameron Jordan. Some top-notch defenders return in DE Trevor Guyton (4.5 sacks, 8.5 TFL), OLB Mychal Kendricks (7 sacks, 14.5 TFL) and LB D.J. Holt (86 tackles). Cal only allowed 187 pass YPG (21st in nation) but had a paltry 9 INT.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Fresno State
Sat, Sept. 10 – at Colorado
Sat, Sept. 17 – Presbyterian
Sat, Sept. 24 – at Washington
Thu, Oct. 6 – at Oregon
Thu, Oct. 13 – USC
Sat, Oct. 22 – Utah
Sat, Oct. 29 – at UCLA
Sat, Nov. 5 – Washington State
Sat, Nov. 12 – Oregon State
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Stanford
Fri, Nov. 25 – at Arizona State
Cal will be playing all of its home games at AT&T Park in San Francisco while Memorial Stadium undergoes renovations. Throw in six conference road games and a Candlestick Park matchup with a quality Fresno State team, and you just don’t see a lot of easy wins for Jeff Tedford’s rebuilding squad. Expect another sub-.500 record from the Bears in 2011.
Prediction: 5-7 record
Sportsbook.com has all the latest future betting odds on the PAC 10 Conference here.
COLORADO BUFFALOES
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-7 (2-6 in Big 12)
ATS Record: 5-6-1
Over/Under: 6-6
Points Scored: 24.2 PPG
Points Allowed: 30.8 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship: 30/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1 (Field)
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Pro Style - Starters Returning: 8
There is excitement in Boulder with a new conference and new coaching staff filled with both NFL and college experience. The new head man is former Redskins TE coach Jon Embree. New OC Eric Bieniemy (Vikings RB coach) starred for CU during its national title in 1990, and has some talent to mentor with QB Tyler Hansen (68.3% comp. rate, 6 TD, 6 INT) and RB Rodney Stewart (1,608 total yards, 4.5 YPC, 10 TD). Hansen had a tremendous spring, looking quite comfortable in the pro-style offense, while Stewart ranked 12th in the nation in rushing (110 YPG). WR Paul Richardson (514 rec yds, 6 TD) and TE Ryan Deehan (25 rec, 249 yds) are both reliable targets.
Defense: Base 43 - Starters Returning: 5
New DC Greg Brown begins his third stint with the Buffs, serving as Arizona’s co-DC last year. The strength of Colorado’s D is the front line with DEs Josh Hartigan (7 sacks) and Forrest West (5.5 sacks, 8.5 TFL) and DT Conrad Obi. Two starting LBs departed, but Jon Major (31 solo tackles in 7 games) is a solid returnee. The 110th-ranked pass defense (260 YPG), could be worse this year without NFL-bound CBs Jimmy Smith and Jalil Brown.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – at Hawaii
Sat, Sept. 10 – California
Sat, Sept. 17 – vs. Colorado State
Sat, Sept. 24 – at Ohio State
Sat, Oct. 1 – Washington State
Sat, Oct. 8 – at Stanford
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Washington
Sat, Oct. 22 – Oregon
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Arizona State
Fri, Nov. 4 – USC
Sat, Nov. 12 – Arizona
Sat, Nov. 19 – at UCLA
Fri, Nov. 25 – at Utah
This will be a transition year in Boulder with a new conference, new coaching staff and many new starters. The Buffs open at Hawaii and also travel to Ohio State. Their easiest game is a neutral-site matchup with rival Colorado State, not necessarily a gimme. All of the Pac-12 road games will be a quite a challenge, but the new team could gel enough during the season’s first two months to close out with a winning November.
Prediction: 4-9 record
OREGON DUCKS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 12-1 (9-0 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 7-6
Over/Under: 8-4
Points Scored: 47.0 PPG
Points Allowed: 18.7 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 6/5
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 8/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Spread Option - Starters Returning: 6
Although Oregon lost a bunch of starters from last year’s 12-1 team, nobody in the country has a better QB-RB duo than Darron Thomas (2,881 pass yds, 30 TD, 9 INT; 486 rush yds, 5 TD) and LaMichael James, the FBS leader in both rushing yards (1,731) and total TD (24). Both are Heisman contenders and were the main reason Oregon led the nation in points (47.0 PPG) and yards (531 YPG). WR is a trouble spot without Jeff Maehl and so is the O-Line replacing three starters.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 5
The D-Line only returns one starter, Terrell Turner (5.5 TFL), but the Ducks have great front-four depth and won’t be affected much by the losses. LB is thinner with Casey Matthews gone to the NFL and Kiko Alonso possibly suspended after an off-season arrest. SLB Josh Kaddu (6.5 TFL) remains. Oregon is loaded in the secondary, led by CB Cliff Harris (6 INT, 17 PD, 4 punt ret. TD) and FS John Boyett (5 INT, 9 PD, 78 tackles). Harris will not play in the opener versus LSU, and could possibly sit out more games, after he was clocked driving 118 mph with a suspended license in the offseason.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – vs. LSU
Sat, Sept. 10 – Nevada
Sat, Sept. 17 – Missouri State
Sat, Sept. 24 – at Arizona
Thu, Oct. 6 – California
Sat, Oct. 15 – Arizona State
Sat, Oct. 22 – at Colorado
Sat, Oct. 29 – Washington State
Sat, Nov. 5 – at Washington
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Stanford
Sat, Nov. 19 – USC
Sat, Nov. 26 – Oregon State
Despite all the turmoil this spring concerning alleged recruiting violations and the Cliff Harris situation, this team is still stacked and ready to hang 50+ points on most opponents. The Ducks could certainly lose to LSU in Arlington, TX without Harris, but they shouldn’t be tested too much before the huge Nov. 12 showdown at Stanford. Another national title shot could be in the works.
Prediction: 11-1 record
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 5-7 (4-5 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 7-5
Over/Under: 6-6
Points Scored: 24.4 PPG
Points Allowed: 26.8 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 20/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 200/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Oregon State had a very disappointing 5-7 season, as the offense ranked 94th in yardage (327 YPG) and averaged 16.8 PPG in the final five games. QB Ryan Katz (2,401 pass yds, 18 TD, 11 INT) returns as the starter, and will likely have the services of WR James Rodgers (91 rec, 1,034 yds, 13 TD in ‘09), who suffered a severe knee injury last October. Head coach Mike Riley was reportedly encouraged by the progress he has made with his recovery. His brother RB Jacquizz Rodgers and his 17 TD are now in the NFL, and several candidates are vying for his vacant starting job. The O-Line returns four starters, but it wasn’t a strong unit last year (35 sacks allowed).
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 5
The defense, which ranked 86th in yards (408 YPG) has some holes to fill with the top two DLs and best two LBs all gone. But the OLBs left are speed burners -- Michael Doctor and Cameron Collins (39 tackles). And even without top CB James Dockery, the secondary is still a top-notch unit led by S Lance Mitchell (74 tackles, 2 INT).
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Sacramento State
Sat, Sept. 10 – at Wisconsin
Sat, Sept. 24 – UCLA
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Arizona State
Sat, Oct. 8 – Arizona
Sat, Oct. 15 – BYU
Sat, Oct. 22 – vs. Washington State
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Utah
Sat, Nov. 5 – Stanford
Sat, Nov. 12 – at California
Sat, Nov. 19 – Washington
Sat, Nov. 26 – at Oregon
The Beavers will be lucky to grab two road wins in their brutal away schedule, which includes traveling to Madison in Week 2. The home schedule is no picnic either with Arizona, BYU, Stanford and Washington coming to Corvallis. With no proven ground game and a below-average defense, don’t expect OSU to go bowling this year.
Prediction: 5-7 record
Part 2 of the PAC 10 picks can be found here
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
