PAC 10 Picks - 2011
Gambling911.com has your PAC 10 picks for the 2011 season courtesy of Sportsbook.com. This is Part 2 of our look at the PAC 10. See more picks here.
STANFORD CARDINAL
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 12-1 (8-1 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 8-4
Over/Under: 6-6
Points Scored: 40.3 PPG
Points Allowed: 17.4 PPG
Odds to win the Pac-12 Championship Game: 2/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 14/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Pro Style - Starters Returning: 5
Much has changed for the Orange Bowl champs, especially last year’s OC David Shaw replacing head coach Jim Harbaugh. But the QB remains the same, as Andrew Luck (3,338 pass yds, 32 TD, 8 INT; 453 rush yds, 8.2 YPC), returns to school to play for a national championship. He doesn’t have his top receivers anymore, Doug Baldwin and Robert Whalen, but WR Chris Owusu (1,158 rec yds, 11 total TD in career) is a playmaker when healthy. RB Stepfan Taylor (1,137 rush yds, 15 TD, 5.1 YPC) returns to anchor the strong rushing attack, which was 17th-best among FBS schools (214 YPG).
Defense:
Base 34 - Starters Returning: 6
The defense only allowed 9.3 PPG in the final six games of last season. Three starting DLs have to be replaced, but two LBs return with All-American candidate ILB Shayne Skov (84 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and OLB Chase Thomas (70 tackles). SS Delano Howell (60 tackles, 5 PD) is one of three returnees in the secondary.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – San Jose State
Sat, Sept. 10 – at Duke
Sat, Sept. 17 – at Arizona
Sat, Oct. 1 – UCLA
Sat, Oct. 8 – Colorado
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Washington State
Sat, Oct. 22 – Washington
Sat, Oct. 29 – at USC
Sat, Nov. 5 – at Oregon State
Sat, Nov. 12 – Oregon
Sat, Nov. 19 – California
Sat, Nov. 26 – Notre Dame
The Cardinal have a favorable schedule, especially since they host conference favorite Oregon in what will likely determine the Pac-12 North champion. With all the new faces on the sidelines and on the gridiron, it could take Stanford a few games to develop a comfort level among these coaches and players, making the trip to Tucson in Week 3 even more treacherous. But other than traveling to USC, there are no other trouble spots in the schedule until the Ducks come to town. Luck is the best QB in college football and the defense is good enough to possibly run the table in most leagues, but the Cardinal are just not as strong as Oregon.
Prediction: 11-1 record
UCLA BRUINS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-8 (2-7 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 3-8-1
Over/Under: 6-6
Points Scored: 20.2 PPG
Points Allowed: 30.3 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 20/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 200/1
2011 Preview
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
The Bruins had a miserable 4-8 season, losing seven Pac-10 games by an average of 24.3 PPG. New OC Mike Johnson will try to solve the QB position (5.3 YPA, 9 TD, 14 INT). The starter will be Richard Brehaut (6 TD, 7 INT), Kevin Prince (3 TD, 5 INT), or true freshman Brett Hundley. The rushing offense was pretty good (176 YPG, 32nd in the nation) and RB Johnathan Franklin (1,127 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 8 TD) is back. So are all the top receivers, namely Taylor Embree (409 rec yds) and Nelson Rosario (309 rec yds).
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 8
The defense, which only forced 18 turnovers and ranked 108th against the run (206 YPG), gets a big boost from DE Datone Jones (4 sacks, 11 TFL in ‘09) who missed 2010 with a broken foot. The team’s best LB, Akeem Ayers, bolted for the NFL, but WLB Sean Westgate (90 tackles, 11 TFL, 4 sacks) returns. Three starting DBs remain, including talented SS Tony Dye (96 tackles, 9 PD).
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – at Houston
Sat, Sept. 10 – San Jose State
Sat, Sept. 17 – Texas
Sat, Sept. 24 – at Oregon State
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Stanford
Sat, Oct. 8 – Washington State
Thu, Oct. 20 – at Arizona
Sat, Oct. 29 – California
Sat, Nov. 5 – Arizona State
Sat, Nov. 12 – at Utah
Sat, Nov. 19 – Colorado
Sat, Nov. 26 – at USC
The Bruins should improve enough to make a bowl this year. They don’t play Oregon or Washington, and have the schedule to possibly post a perfect season at home. If they can solve their quarterback woes in the preseason and stick with that guy all year, there are enough other pieces in place for this team to be competitive in all 12 of their contests, even the tough in-conference road dates.
Prediction: 6-6 record
USC TROJANS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-5 (5-4 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 5-7-1
Over/Under: 7-6
Points Scored: 31.0 PPG
Points Allowed: 26.7 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship: N/A (Probation)
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: N/A (Probation)
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
The Trojans had another subpar year by their own standards, going 8-5 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-10. QB Matt Barkley’s final numbers were excellent (2,791 pass yds, 26 TD, 12 INT), but he fizzled in his final five games (6 TD, 8 INT). The O-Line is major source of concern with just two starters remaining. Despite the potential blocking troubles, the strength of the Trojans lies with RBs Marc Tyler (913 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 9 TD) and Dillon Baxter (252 rush yds, 4.3 YPC). WR Robert Woods is a productive wideout (65 rec, 792 yds, 6 TD), but USC is looking for a receiver to complement him.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 8
The Trojans’ defensive slide continued last year, as they allowed 400 YPG (84th in nation) and gave up 32+ points in six games. But eight starters are back, including four really good ones -- DE Nick Perry (4 sacks), LB Devon Kennard (72 tackles), S T.J. McDonald (89 tackles, 3 INT) and CB Nickell Robey (4 INT).
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Minnesota
Sat, Sept. 10 – Utah
Sat, Sept. 17 – Syracuse
Sat, Sept. 24 – at Arizona State
Sat, Oct. 1 – Arizona
Thu, Oct. 13 – at California
Sat, Oct. 22 – at Notre Dame
Sat, Oct. 29 – Stanford
Fri, Nov. 4 – at Colorado
Sat, Nov. 12 – Washington
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Oregon
Sat, Nov. 26 – UCLA
The Trojans need to show a major improvement on the defensive side of the ball to have any chance of stopping the high-powered offenses on their schedule like Utah, Arizona, Notre Dame, Stanford and Oregon. The 2011 schedule is pretty manageable for the first half of the year, but wins will be hard to come by in the final six games.
Prediction: 8-4 record
UTAH UTES
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 10-3 (7-1 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 7-5-1
Over/Under: 7-6
Points Scored: 33.1 PPG
Points Allowed: 20.3 PPG
2011 Odds:
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 12/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 100/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
After starting last season 8-0, the Utes finished 2-3, scoring a laughable 13 total points in the three defeats. Now Utah enters the Pac-12, but with a lot of question marks. Highly-regarded OC Norm Chow joins the staff, but he doesn’t have great weapons with the loss of Utah’s two best RBs and two best WRs. QB Jordan Wynn (2,334 pass yds, 17 TD, 10 INT) is coming off shoulder surgery, but he does have WR DeVonte Christopher (39 rec, 660 yds, 6 TD) as a reliable target. There is no telling who will carry the football, though.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 5
There are many defensive holes to fill with six starters gone. No returning player in the front seven had more than two sacks last year, but two strong LBs return in Chaz Walker (113 tackles) and Matt Martinez (91 tackles). The secondary wasn’t great in 2010 (225 YPG, 73rd in nation), and four of its top five players are gone. Not good for a passing-rich Pac-12.
2011 Schedule:
Thu, Sept. 1 – Montana State
Sat, Sept. 10 – at USC
Sat, Sept. 17 – at BYU
Sat, Oct. 1 – Washington
Sat, Oct. 8 – Arizona State
Sat, Oct. 15 – at Pittsburgh
Sat, Oct. 22 – at California
Sat, Oct. 29 – Oregon State
Sat, Nov. 5 – at Arizona
Sat, Nov. 12 – UCLA
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Washington State
Fri, Nov. 25 – Colorado
Two non-conference road games at BYU and Pittsburgh will not be easy, but Utah avoids BOTH Oregon and Stanford in conference play. This unbalanced schedule is the big reason the Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 South. But this team is not as talented as either Arizona or Arizona State, and will ultimately finish with a mediocre record.
Prediction: 7-5
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-6 (5-4 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 7-6
Over/Under: 7-6
Points Scored: 21.8 PPG
Points Allowed: 29.3 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 40/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 200/1
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
The Huskies won the final four games of 2010 including crushing Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, but QB Jake Locker has graduated. The QB battle is between sophomore Keith Price (19-37, 164 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT) and redshirt freshman Nick Montana. There are two bona-fide stars in the supporting cast in RB Chris Polk (1,415 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 9 TD) and WR Jermaine Kearse (63 rec, 1,005 yds, 12 TD). The O-Line should remain above-average.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 8
Defensively, DT Alameda Ta’amu (39 tackles, 5 TFL) anchors a deep front line, but the linebacker corps must replace its two best players in SLB Mason Foster, who had 163 tackles, and WLB Victor Aiyewa, who had 21 TFL. MLB Cort Dennison (92 tackles, 8.5 TFL) is the remaining starter. UW only allowed 194 passing YPG (27th in nation), and its secondary remains strong with CB Desmond Trufant (48 tackles, 4 PD) and FS Nate Fellner (5 INT).
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Eastern Washington
Sat, Sept. 10 – Hawaii
Sat, Sept. 17 – at Nebraska
Sat, Sept. 24 – California
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Utah
Sat, Oct. 15 – Colorado
Sat, Oct. 22 – at Stanford
Sat, Oct. 29 – Arizona
Sat, Nov. 5 – Oregon
Sat, Nov. 12 – at USC
Sat, Nov. 19 – at Oregon State
Sat, Nov. 26 – Washington State
The Huskies have been a terrible road team recently, going 9-33 SU (21%) away from home since 2003. With a road slate of Nebraska, Utah, Stanford, USC and Oregon State this year, don’t expect this mark to improve with a new QB under center. However, Washington is sound enough on defense to pick up enough home wins to go bowling.
Prediction: 7-5 record
Get all the latest PAC 10 betting odds at Sportsbook.com here.
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
2010 Statistics:
SU Record: 2-10 (1-8 in Pac-10)
ATS Record: 7-5
Over/Under: 6-5
Points Scored: 19.6 PPG
Points Allowed: 35.8 PPG
Odds to Win Pac-12 Championship Game: 100/1
Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship: 50/1 (Field)
2011 Preview:
Offense:
Multiple Spread - Starters Returning: 8
WSU has a dreadful 5-32 record in the past three seasons, but things are looking up. QB Jeff Tuel (2,780 pass yds, 18 TD, 12 INT) enters his third year as the starter and has a bevy of talented receivers, most notably Marquess Wilson (55 rec, 1,006 yds, 6 TD). The passing game should improve further in coach Paul Wulff’s no-huddle offense. Freshman RB Rickey Galvin is expected to boost the ground game, which averaged 2.6 YPC last year. The O-Line was also to blame, allowing 51 sacks and 108 TFL.
Defense:
Base 43 - Starters Returning: 7
The defense gave up the nation’s third-most yards (467 YPG), but quality players remain in DE Travis Long (4 sacks), MLB C.J. Mizell (57 tackles) and WLB Alex Hoffman-Ellis (5 TFL). The secondary returns all four starters, so they should improve.
2011 Schedule:
Sat, Sept. 3 – Idaho State
Sat, Sept. 10 – UNLV
Sat, Sept. 17 – at San Diego State
Sat, Oct. 1 – at Colorado
Sat, Oct. 8 – at UCLA
Sat, Oct. 15 – Stanford
Sat, Oct. 22 – Oregon State
Sat, Oct. 29 – at Oregon
Sat, Nov. 5 – at California
Sat, Nov. 12 – Arizona State
Sat, Nov. 19 – Utah
Sat, Nov. 26 – at Washington
The Cougars should be more competitive in conference play this year, but they probably won’t be favored in any of their nine Pac-12 tilts. WSU’s weak non-conference sked gives the school a great chance to finish September undefeated before Pac-12 play begins. Assuming the Cougars develop some semblance of a rushing attack, expect them to have another winning season Against The Spread, while doubling their SU win total from a year ago.
Prediction: 4-8 record
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
