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This Packers-Bears betting preview comes to us from Barry Daniels of Don Best Sports.
The Chicago Bears hold a 92-83-6 advantage against the Green Bay Packers during the 181 meetings in the NFL’s oldest rivalry dating to 1921. However, they have only met once in the playoffs.
That will change Sunday afternoon in Soldiers Field when the Bears host the Packers in the NFC title game. Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports have installed the Packers as 3 ½-point road favorites, with the total set at 43 ½.
These NFC Central Division rivals have met twice this season, with both squads registering home wins and both outings dipping ‘under’ the closing total. In fact, the ‘under’ has cashed in the last six series meetings.
The Bears took advantage of a team-record 18 penalties by the Packers to win 20-17 on Sept. 27 as three-point home underdogs. The total closed at a healthy 45 ½ points.
Chicago then went all-out trying to keep the Packers out of the playoffs during a 10-3 loss at Lambeau Field to finish the regular season. Chicago went with its starters even though it was locked into the No. 2 seed and had secured a first-round bye.
Green Bay failed to cover the spread as an 11-point home favorite, while the two teams never threatened the 43 ½-point closing total.
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The Bears earned a trip to the postseason thanks to a remarkable turnaround that saw them win seven of eight before dropping the finale. That season-saving run gave them their third NFC North title in seven years and put them in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 Super Bowl season.
Chicago enters this contest at 12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS. The squad is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in nine home dates despite outscoring the opposition by a little less than one point per game (23.4 to 22.7).
Overall, the Bears outscored their opponents by a little more than three points per contest (21.7-18.2). The 21.7 points put them in 21st place offensively, which is better than their 30th place finish in total yards (289.4 YPG).
Defensively, the Bears ranked fourth in the league in points allowed and second in rushing yards allowed per game (90.1). They yielded 314.3 yards per game overall, which ranks ninth.
The Green Bay Packers defeated Philadelphia and top-seeded Atlanta in road playoff games, and are now a victory at Soldier Field away from becoming the second No. 6 seed to win a conference championship.
Green Bay’s defense has stymied two of the league's best offenses during those last two weeks, holding the Eagles to 16 points and the Falcons to 21.
Though Packers quarterback Aaron Rogers is also playing at a high level, he has not done much against Chicago this season. Rogers has thrown for 545 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions during the two meetings.
Green Bay, entering this contest on a four-game winning streak, is 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS. The club is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road, with the ‘under’ going 8-2 during that span. The Packers are outscoring the opposition on the road by an average of 21.3 to 15.4.
The Don Best Sports injury report lists Green Bay linebacker Frank Zombo (knee), safety Atari Bigby (groin) and fullback Korey Hall (knee) as “questionable.” Chicago is relatively healthy, with defensive back Chris Harris listed as “probable” with a hip problem.
The Don Best Sports trends section also has some interesting tendencies.
For instance, the Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as favorites and also in their last seven road games. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games as a favorite. The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Green Bay’s last five games as a road favorite.
The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four January games, with the ‘under’ going 9-1 in their last 10 contests played in January. However, the Bears are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 outings as an underdog between 3 ½ and 10 points.
The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six series meetings in Chicago, with the Packers going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to the Windy City.
