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After opening at -7, the Penn State Ohio State line has moved down a half point to -6.5 favoring the home team Buckeyes.
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Ohio St -6.5 & 39
Opening Line & Total: OSU -7 & 39.5
No. 21 Penn State takes to the road for the first time without Joe Paterno when it visits Columbus to take on Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions haven’t had much good news in the past two weeks, but they finally received some, as top RB Silas Redd is expected to start despite a freak injury. Redd suffered a sprained joint in his chest area in last week’s loss to Nebraska. Ohio State hit rock bottom last week, dropping an overtime decision at Purdue, a 7.5-point underdog. This came one week after struggling at home with 27-point dog Indiana, which had the score tied 20-20 late in the third quarter. Although the Buckeyes are 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the past nine meetings, the Nittany Lions have been the better football team this season, and they are 8-3 SU in their past 11 road games.
If Redd (106 rushing YPG, 4th in Big Ten) does have a setback, PSU can be confident in knowing backup RB Stephfon Green can handle the rushing workload. Green filled in nicely last week with 71 rushing yards and 2 TD. Although QB Matt McGloin threw two picks in last year’s 38-14 loss at Ohio State, he has been much more careful with the football this year, tossing just three interceptions in 196 pass attempts. He has 3 TD and 0 INT in three road games this year.
Penn State’s defense has been stellar all season, ranking third in scoring (12.9 PPG), fifth in passing yardage (168 YPG) and eighth in total yardage (287 YPG). PSU has forced 23 turnovers this season, posting at least three takeaways in six of 10 games this year.
Although the Buckeyes are still a mess throwing the football (117 passing YPG, 3rd-worst in FBS), the rushing offense has come around since Dan Herron returned from his suspension. Herron has rushed for 483 yards (5.4 YPC) in just four games, helping his team average 247 rushing YPG with Herron back in the lineup. In last year’s drubbing of PSU at the Horseshoe last year, Herron ran for 190 yards and a touchdown. Freshman QB Braxton Miller has yet to throw for 150 yards in a game, but he has rushed for at least 90 yards in three of his past five games, scoring five times on the ground in the past three weeks. The Buckeyes have allowed the fifth-most sacks in FBS (3.3 per game), which doesn’t bode well against a Penn State team that has done a great job pressuring opposing quarterbacks this year with 2.4 sacks per game (third in Big Ten).
OSU has been good defensively overall, but has allowed 46 points in the past two weeks to the subpar offenses of Indiana and Purdue. The Buckeyes rank 15th in the nation in total defense (317 YPG) and 15th in scoring (18.9 PPG), but have forced only two turnovers in the past three weeks combined.
